chance an ORM for ivies and safeties

No Illinois publics on your list?

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary indicates that, for fall 2016, UCB frosh applicants in the highest HS GPA range had an admission rate of 42%. Since you are presumably not applying for one of the smaller divisions with significantly different admission selectivity (e.g. College of Engineering, College of Chemistry), that probably puts it between match and reach for admission.

But the high out-of-state cost means that it is not a particularly good idea for an out-of-state pre-med to go there. Better to go some place that costs less and save the rest of the money for medical school to reduce the amount of debt you will have at the end of medical school.