Chance at Carnegie Mellon or Vanderbilt Early Decsion?!

what kind of chance do i have at either of these schools? They are my top two and i need to decide which i should apply ED

Stats
UW GPA- 3.6 due to a poor freshman year but tremendous trend upward
W GPA- 4.374
ACT- 31 composite and 12 on the writing

School-
Chicago. Ranked #7 most competitive in IL class of 1000 and no rank given

Activities:
Band-2 years
Orchestra- 3 years and signed up for next year
Model United Nations- 2 years and president
Boys and Girls service club
Various intermural sports throughout the years

Extras:
Done something academic with all of my summers throughout high school
-took chemistry over the summer before 10th grade
-took shakespeare studies at the University of Oxford in England the summer before 11th grade
-Lifeguard summer going into 11th and 12th grades
-Intern at University of Illinois of Chicago Diabetes Research Lab summer going into 12th grade. this lead to a publication so I am published and also I got a college rec from a world renown transplant surgeon

-Taken the most rigorous courses after freshman year including 6 sciences (Physics Chem Bio AP Chem AP Bio and AP Physics C) normally a student takes four, very rarely a student takes five and I am the only kid in my class of 1000 taking 6.
-Also aside from those AP sciences I will or have taken- AP Psych and AP Calc AB as well as 5 years of language.
-I have also each year taken a class before school to fit more majors than normal into my schedule.

-Recomendations- One from my Intro bio teacher who also taught my AP bio class amazing rec. One is from American History teacher which will be good but not great and one more.

Leadership
-Phyllis Leadership program- program that aims to connect kids from the affulent north shore with kids from the south and west sides of chicago.
-SILC- Student Instruction Leadership Core- basically a TA, for biology
-Senior Helper- Senior that advise freshman through their trannsition and year through high school. I am practically their homeroom teacher.