<p>People say all this stuff about the admissions process not making any sense. It does make sense. Schools choose their candidates with a purpose. They take the strongest applications. Strengthening your application increases their odds.</p>
<p>Of course there is some chance involved. I got into Stanford but not HYMP. I know two friends who got in MIT but not HYPS; one who got in princeton but not HYMS; one who got in HYP but not S/M. Chance? Yes. Blind chance? No. They all had very strong applications, but not so strong as to be shoo-ins.</p>
<p>Some people are shoo-ins (IMO winners etc.) Some are shoo-outs (1500 sat 2.0 gpa). Between there, it’s a ‘probablility distribution’, with marginally stronger applications being margninally more likely to be chosen, and strong but slightly weaker ones slightly less likely to be chosen. If you’re ‘on the cuff’ the odds may be 50/50 at each of HYPS. This means you have a very strong application, which may or may not be chosen.</p>