Chance at these schools

If someone wins USAPhO or IPHO (physics olympiads) combined with good scores, gpa, letters of rec, and some not too shabby ecs
would they have a good chance of getting into schools like
Berkely
Harvey Mudd
UC San Diego
Caltech

UCSD does not accept LOR’s and UCB invites a select few applicants to submit them.

What is your UC GPA capped weighted, unweighted and fully weighted? What are your test scores and EC’s? You also forgot about essays as part of the application process along with intended major.

Need to post specifics if you want any useful feedback.

I am not sure if I understand what you asked in the first question but are you asking my GPA right now ( I am in HS).
If so it is a 4.35 weighted and my unweighted is 4.0.
I am still a sophomore and I haven’t taken the ACT and the SAT subject tests yet but I plan on doing so next year.
My ECs are physics club(founded) and math club. I don’t have much ECs to be honest but I am looking at competition physics right now which I’ll participate in next year.

I want brutally honest answers, redpill me. I don’t expect much with my chances right now and what I plan on doing, but I hope for colleges like Harvey Mudd at least.

Are you Male and Asian American? That matters

I am a male but not an Asian American. I am actually African

Race doesn’t matter for UCs though.

Every award increases your profile and make you more attractive, and the high level the award, the more attractive an applicant you become, at least for colleges with holistic admission processes.

However, there is almost no award that assures you admission to any college. In fact, most students are admitted to the schools you have on your list do not have such awards.

Colleges like students who work hard in school and do well, have outside activities at which they work hard and invest, and who do well on standardized testing. As a Sophomore, THAT should be your focus, not on finding some golden ticket which will assure you admissions to any college you wish.

You are a sophomore, so, for the UCs, you only have a single semester which will be used for your UC GPA. It is far too early to even think of what your chances will be.

If you want to enter any Olympiads, do so, and try to do your best. However, do not believe that winning any of them will guarantee you admission to any college. That is not how colleges admissions work. To be successful in college, you need to be able to work hard for four years, and do well on multiple subjects. That is the primary ability for which colleges are looking.

Thank you for the honesty. I am a sophomore and I’m looking for STEM related activities to do and things to add onto my ECs. I am not trying to statpad any ECs that are irrelevant to my focus(physics). Are there activities related to physics I can do this summer besides all those programs? Informal research assitant would be hard since I haven’t taken a formal physics class yet.

If you haven’t taken physics, let me tell you that it is EXTREMELY hard to win USAPhO. Most people I know who compete in it, let alone win, have been doing phys since middle school and passed the AP test in eighth grade. Don’t rely on that win at all.