Chance for Lafayette ED, Bates/Skidmore ED2, F&M, Union, Trinity, Muhlenberg, St Lawrence

GPA: 3.3 UW
(Currently unrolled in APUSH, AP Bio, Honors Pre-Calculus, Spanish 4, American Literature, Jazz Band, and Leadership Advisory)

ACT: 30 (Retaking in a few weeks)

Extra Curriculars:
Habitat for Humanity President
Eagle Scout
Peer Leadership
Varsity Basketball
Jazz Band

Work:
Music Shop in Town w/ guitar lessons
Teaches Hoops
Police Station Intern

Recs: Above average from two teachers I had coincidentally had both sophomore and junior year. Know them outside the classroom as well.

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What state are you from?

I think you need to reconsider your ED strategy…
(note, I did not give any extra advantage to ED in the estimates below)

Bates 5%

Lafayette 45%
Union 45%
F&M 50%
Trinity 60%
Skidmore 60%
Muhlenberg 70%

St Lawrence 90%

@BatesParent2019 New York

@NickFlynn would a 32 increase my chances there

Sure, but not as much as a bunch of A’s first semester senior year would. Your GPA is really what is going to hold you back at the more selective schools - they really hate that. How did your junior year grades stack about against the rest of them? If you improved a lot junior, that will help, and if you can keep it going into senior year, that will help even more.

If you are on an upward trend, and you think you can lay down a bunch of A’s in the Fall, I really think you might want to pass on ED - you would want to let the schools see the improvement before they make a decision.

Your chances at Lafayette I think are better than Nick’s number because Lafayette has very good yield from NJ and NY and will know your school.

Bates is a real uphill battle. ED is not much of an advantage after you adjust for athletes, legacy and URM applicants. Also, the applicant pool otherwise are above average applicants. Your GPA for Bates is way below average. Nick is about right 5% shot maybe a bit higher. When you are so far below average with an overall acceptance rate of about 20% and lower for regular applicants, your chances evaporate.

Give Bucknell a shot instead.

thanks for the help guys