There are only a small handful of colleges and universities in the US that both meet full need for international students, and that also are need-blind for international students. ALL of them are very, very difficult for admissions (for anyone, and even more so for international students). As such I am not that concerned about schools such as Wellesley College that are need-aware, on the basis that any school in the US that meets full need is going to be a high reach anyway.
Of course this does mean that you need to apply to some other schools that you are actually likely to get accepted to.
It is hard to say. I do know someone who did well enough at U of T to get accepted to (and attend) a master’s program at Stanford. I used to know someone else who graduated from U of T and went on to get both a master’s and PhD at Princeton. My own limited experience would suggest that the grade deflation at the top Canadian universities (Toronto, UBC, McGill) really is that bad. On the other hand, our daughter’s experience at one of the small “primarily undergraduate” universities in Canada suggests that a very high “graduate school worthy” GPA is possible.
Transferring into top US schools as an undergraduate student is very, very difficult. Usually you need very good academics, some luck, and a very good academic reason to transfer. If you are already a student at the University of Toronto it is going to be very difficult to provide any valid academic reason to transfer simply because U of T is so strong for so many possible majors.
Have you already applied? What is your status?
One daughter was accepted to McGill, asked to change her major, was then accepted into McGill in the new major, all before she decided where she was going, and then decided to go somewhere else. Both daughters changed their major after their freshman year of university (one in the US, one in Canada). Sometimes a change of major requires an application, and having good grades up to that point might be needed. However, it is common in both Canada and the US for students to change their majors after starting university.
If you are starting university in September of 2023 then I would expect that you already know where you are going. If you are starting university in September of 2024 or later then you still have time to send in applications anywhere.
There are a lot of very good universities in Canada. Overall and for some (not all) majors the University of Toronto is the highest ranked. There are however quite a few others that are very good. From what I have seen the most famous (Toronto, McGill, UBC, Waterloo) can be more expensive in many cases for international students compared to other schools. Many other very good universities in Canada would fit your budget even if you do not get any financial aid. Merit based aid is possible, tends to be small, but when you are starting from an “already affordable” base price having a little merit aid is still nice (this was our status for our daughter who studied in Canada).
I have wondered the same thing.
I do think that you could find multiple universities in Canada that will meet your budget and to which you can be admitted, assuming that you look beyond the most famous universities. I am pretty sure that the same would be true in the US, if you look for merit aid outside of the top ranked most famous schools here.