Chance me/ advice please

Colleges and Universities A-Z Princeton University
1

Hello,

Basic info:
ACT: 35 (took only once, 35,35,35,36-- practice test also a 35: 36,36,35,34).
SAT: Didn’t bother taking
PSAT: 750 Math (760 was max)/ 720 Verbal
SAT II: 800 Math II, 800 Chem, 780 Physics.
AP Tests: 10 taken so far, 8 of them are 5s and 2 of them are 4s. Will take another 4 tests this year, including calc three.

White male.
Public high school in OH. (Competitive- while it’s not officially announced, our guidance counselor stated we’ll have 43 national merit commended or above in a class of 420. Last year was similar.)
Unweighted GPA: 4.0
Weighted 4.57
Class rank: Our high school doesn’t disclose. If I’m not number one, it’s because I insist on staying in band causing me to miss one extra AP class. (One cannot separate a player from his trombone…)

Captain of cross-country team-- even though not varsity. I love running. Unfortunately, I’m not particularly fast.
Member of science Olympiad team that went to nationals every year-- I personally didn’t get any national medals-- though many lower levels ones…
Volunteered as a programmer for a local charity-- optimized routes for deliveries…
I had misc. other stuff-- but track, Science Olympiad and band are what eats my extra time.

After reviewing statistics in Naviance on the acceptance rates in my high school, I am discouraged. Over the past 5 years, our high school has had 57 applications to Harvard, 71 to Stanford, 90 to Yale, and 49 to Princeton. Those 267 applications netted 12 who were accepted to HYPS for an overall-rate of 4.5%. (Of the 12 accepted, I am aware that several, perhaps the majority, were legacies.) Our school typically has 6 students per year with either perfect SATs or ACTs. (Alas, I’m not one of them.) Given that our schools acceptance rate is significantly lower than HYPS averages and given my less than stellar extra-curriculars, it would suggest my application energies would be best be placed elsewhere.

Princeton is my dream school because of it’s operations research program is extraordinary. Professor’s Powell’s work on computational stochastic optimization and it’s real world benefits are truly fascinating. Indeed the entire Castle Labs site is amazing. While no one would accuse of me of being a person of passion, complex mathematical problems, statistics analysis, applied math, etc, are what consumes me. Nate’s Silver 538 website, Sam Wang’s the Princeton Election Consortium-- those are type of websites I love. When I parents asked me what I wanted to be, I said only half-jokingly an actuary. They thought it odd. But I suppose I am a bit odd.

Comments? And I correct is assessing my chances as low (sub 10%) and I should instead concentrate on Ops Research programs elsewhere? Would it make a difference to retake ACTs? I didn’t study for them and hopefully would get a 36 next time around?

2

You seem like a wonderful applicant – and your test scores are absolutely fine, no need to retake.

As Princeton receives more qualified applicants than they have seats in their freshman class, Admissions uses a student’s teacher recommendations, guidance counselor’s Secondary School Report (SSR), Essays and Interview Report to choose one high performing student over another. As you didn’t post that information – nor should you – no one can say what kind of chance you have. The best anyone can say from your post is that are a qualified applicant, but so are most students who are ultimately rejected.

So long as you cast a wide net by applying to a number of safety, target and reach schools you will get into a wonderful group of colleges. Princeton may, or may not, be one of them. Best of luck to you in the Admissions process.

3

Thanks for your thoughtful reply and the words of encouragement.

A subtext of my post is that given the statistical evidence that applicants from my high school under perform normal admission rates with applicants with similar test scores to the HYPS schools, yet over perform for others schools-- e.g., MIT, Caltech,Penn, Columbia, Dartmouth,etc that for whatever reason successful admission to HYPS schools is challenged.

Hence, my odds of success are so diminished that my resources would be best deployed on other schools. I’ve put 5 years of admissions data into a spreadsheet today (I’ll admit I’ve haven’t run a monte carlo simulation or done more rigorous analysis-- I’ll be teaching myself how this weekend) , still I glean from just eyeballing the data that it suggests our high school is less successful with HYPS schools-- hence, I’ll be less successful too. I have two cousins that went to Yale in last 5 years with good but slightly lower scores and GPA. When I asked them how the heck did two of you get into Yale, they said “I dunno. Maybe because our high school is better connected.” Or it could be recommendations, interviews/interviewers. Still I’m suspicious that distribution affects are at play.

According to Parchment-- which I have no way of knowing the quality of their projections-- I should have 20% chance at Princeton. A long shot yes, but better than 1 in 20. In any case, I’m digressing and it’s late and I have track meet tomorrow.

Thanks again.

4

Parchment’s statistics are overly optimistic; students who are admitted are so elated they happily return and post their stats, while rejected students are often depressed and don’t return to post their outcomes. As a result, Parchment presents an overly rosy picture and their statistics are not a good barometer and should not be relied upon. In the real world, no student – no matter their stats – has a 20% chance of being admitted to HYPS!

I do think Naviance is VERY reliable, as it tracks the outcome of students from your high school with similar stats over a period of time. Some high schools are “feeder schools” to the ivies. This from the Harvard Crimson: http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/12/13/making-harvard-feeder-schools/

I’m assuming the statistics at Princeton are somewhat similar for those high schools. As your high school does not have a good track record with Princeton, I would not assume an outcome that is different from what Naviance has suggested.

That said, college Admissions is like the lottery. You can’t win it if you’re not in it! You will never know the outcome of your application to Princeton (or any other college) until you press the submit button and take a chance.

FULL DISCLOSURE: My son and daughter attended a feeder high school (Stuyvesant). My daughter applied to HYP with the exact SAME application, teacher recommendations and essays. She was accepted to Harvard, waitlisted at Princeton and rejected at Yale. My son also applied to HYP with the exact same application, essays and teacher recommendations. He was accepted to Yale and Princeton and rejected at Harvard.

Why did one highly selective college accept while another rejected? After all, each Admissions Committee was reading exactly the same application, with the same stats, same essays, same teacher recommendations, but came to a different conclusion. The answer: everything is subjective. What one Admissions Director responds to, another finds lacking. My take away: cast a wide-net, as it’s impossible to predict the outcome of any student’s application.

You need to stop overthinking this. You have wonderful stats and I would suggest applying to HYP as reach schools – probably one of them in the SCEA round (Princeton if that’s your favorite). You should also be applying to safety and target schools. With some luck, you WILL be admitted to some wonderful colleges, but it’s impossible to say now which ones those might be.