I think if op is serious about Middlebury, he should apply ed2. Otherwise it will be a difficult admit simply because so much of the class is take Ed, 85 percent last year which has to be amongst the highest of any school.
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I note one has to be cautious assuming that a high percentage of ED enrollees means a similarly high percentage of ED admittees.
Middlebury had 1644 admittees in the last CDS, of which only 439 were admitted ED. So, nearly three times as many people were admitted RD as ED. I think it is safe to assume if you only looked at unhooked admits, that multiple would grow.
However, probably only around 213 of the 1205 non-ED admits actually enrolled (this is assuming a 97% yield out of ED admits, which we learned was reasonable in other discussion). Meaning probably a little over 82% of the people admitted to Middlebury RD ended up choosing another college (or didnât enroll anywhere).
My point is just that if you are not sure you want to choose Middlebury and so do RD, you will not be alone. And in fact probably many more people like that will be admitted to Middlebury than people who are admitted ED. But then most RD admits will choose not to attend Middlebury, and that is what will lead to ED admits being such a high percentage of enrollees.
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For the class of 2027, according to Middleburyâs press release, 516 out of 630 students for fall admission were admitted ED. The ED acceptance rate was 39 percent and the overall acceptance rate was just below 6 percent. Just guesstimating, that puts RD acceptance rate somewhere south of 3 percent, maybe south of 2 percent,
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I believe this is the press release in question:
If so, it says, âA total of 516 students were accepted through the early decision programs including the first cohort of QuestBridge Scholars,â but we donât actually know how many of those enrolled.
It also says, âThe overall class will include 630 students for fall enrollment and 105 who will start in February 2024.â So that is actually 735 total enrollees.
OK, so assuming something like 97% of the 516 enrolled, you are looking at about 501, so that leaves about 234 from RD. So a little more than the 213 from the prior yearâs CDS.
OK, so then how many people did they need to actually admit RD to get to 234 enrolling RD? We donât know yet, but if we just assume the same yield percentage, you get about 1324 RD admits. Again, this is about 2.6 times the number of ED admits, and very likely much more when you take out hooked applicants (now including Questbridge).
Anyway, they had 11971 RD applicants, so this is estimating about a 10.8% RD admit rate. But that observation is of limited value to the OP, because I am quite sure most of the people not accepted RD had worse qualifications.
Again, my point is that Middlebury almost surely admitted many more unhooked people RD than it admitted unhooked ED to what it calls the classes of 2027 and 2027.5. Because almost surely the large majority of those unhooked RD admits chose not to attend Middlebury, so it had to admit a multiple in RD to yield the students it wanted.
And very likely that will all happen again this year.
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Middlebury reports an overall acceptance rate for the class of 2027 of 12% in this site:
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Very helpful. 1553 admitted students total, 516 of which were ED including Questbridge. So, this implies a higher yield and lower admit rate for RD than estimate aboveâ1037 admits out of 11971 is an 8.7% admit rate, 730 (down from 735?) minus the estimated 501 is 229, so that is an estimated 22.1% yield rate.
Of course this doesnât change the big pictureâwith this additional piece of information we confirmed that Middlebury did in fact have to admit a multiple of ED in RD, because a large majority of RD admits did in fact decide not to enroll at Middlebury.
Regarding your chances at Cornell, they are highly connected to your choice of undergraduate school. In figures Iâve seen, the acceptance rate for the College of Human Ecology tends to be over twice that of the undergraduate schools generally. However, as a statutory school, HumEc may not favor students from less common origins over those from New York State.
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You are both including Spring admittees. I didnât include those because op didnât indicate an interest in Spring start, and many kids are unwilling to consider it. I am sure the yield is also much lower.
However there is still a very substantial difference between the ED acceptance rate of 40 percent and even a 10 to 12 percent in RD. If one really wants Middlebury, they should apply ED.
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As suggested above, your interests seem to match well for a public policy major. This major encourages students to choose a focus, with health care and the environment as potential emphases. Your intended major at Cornell would suit you just fine, of course. But the alternative of a somewhat broader public policy option would open additional college possibilities for you in the later admission rounds, should they be necessary.
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I think you definitely have a shot at any college, including Cornell or Middlebury ED. I do have some concerns about the schools where youâre extremely likely to be admitted, though. Although you like the offerings at CU and U. of Arizona, they are SO different from your top choices that I would look for some additional schools that might be closer to your favorite schools. In light of that, I added a couple of schools (in bold) that you might want to consider. If I wrote more for some than for others, it had nothing to do with the quality of one program as compared to another, but more to do with my energy levels.
Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
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Allegheny (PA ): About 1400 undergrads attend this college. Its Global Health Studies major seems like it might suit you well, and its Environmental Science & Sustainability major is quite popular and has a long history. Itâs part of the Colleges That Change Lives association, too, which is a set of well-regarded smaller colleges, generally liberal arts schools. Hereâs its CTCL profile: Allegheny College â Colleges That Change Lives.
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Augustana (IL): About 2300 undergrads at this college that offers a major in Public Health
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DePauw (IN): Seconding this school of about 1800 undergrads for you. Its major in Global Health seems to be suited to your interests.
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Fort Lewis (CO): This school of about 3300 undergrads is another WUE option for you and its location would be particularly amazing for your outdoors activities. Offers a public health major, in addition to a variety of environmental majors.
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Luther (IA): About 1600 undergrads here and one aspect of note about its Global Health major is that it has programs that allows students to study abroad in this major, which isnât always the case at other schools. It also has a 4+1 program to earn a Bachelorâs (in any field) and then a Masterâs in Public Health in 5 years. And its environmental studies major offers multiple concentrations, including allowing students to create an individualized one.
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Nazareth (NY): About 2k undergrads and offers both a B.A. and a B.S. in Public Health. Its major in Global Sustainability seems as though it might also be of interest
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St. Bonaventure (NY): About 1900 undergrads and not only offers a major in Public Health, but also offers a major in Health and Society.
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Wheaton (MA): About 1700 undergrads and has Public Health majors with a focus on anthropology, psychology, or sociology.
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U. of Arizona
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CU Boulder
Likely (60-79%)
Toss-Up (40-59%)
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Denison (OH): About 2400 undergrads and it also offers a Global Health major. This would probably be on the low end of the toss-up category.
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Oberlin
Lower Probability (20-39%)
- Cornell ED
Low Probability (less than 20%)
- Amherst
- Middlebury
- Bowdoin
- Colby
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There is a very deep difference between the universities and the LACs in the list, particularly in such an cross départemental major, where large universities offer more depth in research, science, engineering.
If you like Cornell/McGill, schools like UVA, UCLA, Stanford, Berkeley would probably offer more depth than a LAC
Best of luck with Cornell
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As is the case at most colleges. With high-acheiving kids dropping 10, 15, even 20+ applications, there will be many more losers than winners. Yield rates at nearly every school have dropped over the past few years due to this trend.
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Absolutely. I am not sure I have seen an ED college yet (with published data) that does not have a fairly low yield out of RD.
As you say, part of that is just that the sorts of kids these colleges want are applying to a bunch of competitive colleges these days.
I also think this is an obvious practical implication of ED, particularly when there is ED 1 and ED 2. If a kid does not choose your college for either round of ED, that is a pretty strong indication they do not have you first on their list. So of course the college then needs to get âluckyâ in the sense they need some of the kids they admit RD to not get admitted to one of the colleges those kids (likely) prefer.
What I find interesting is that at least in this stage of the annual cycle, a lot of people seem implicitly convinced that these colleges will not want you if they are not your first (or at least second) choice. But we know from their behavior that assumption is quite wrong. They donât fill up in ED 1 and ED 2, even when they could. They instead leave slots open and admit a bunch of people in RD, and hope to get lucky with enough of them to hit their enrollment targets.
This makes sense, because very likely they know from their past cycles that at a certain point, they are likely to do better admitting 5 people they like RD, each with a 20% chance of yielding, than planning to fill the same slot out of ED 1/ED 2. And they just donât have a problem with the fact that most of their RD enrollees got rejected at colleges they preferred. As long as they want that RD admit more than whatever ED person they did not admit, they are cool with that.
And of course if they are not sure whether they would prefer the ED admit to the 5 RD admitsâthey just defer the ED person.
Anyway, all this will become way more clear in a few months when competitive kids are getting into multiple great colleges RD, and turning down all but the one college they prefer. Which could be an ED college, but quite often it will just be another RD college.
But by that point, people wonât really still be thinking about ED strategies, since that will just be a distant memory. However, whether acknowledged or not, when that happens it will be demonstrating why even great colleges actually have to admit quite a lot of people RD to get the classes they really want.
You havenât mentioned the equity issue here that many institutions grapple with in not taking more ED applicants (of course, some schools donât care as much). Applying ED is a luxury for many students in that they are in a position not to have to worry about comparing financial aid offers.
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This issue is raised regularly, but at this point, if you can pay the number the NPC yields, you can apply ED. IF you want to lay all the offers on the table, itâs not an option. And of course, if youâre not happy with the NPC, itâs unlikely to change because you submitted an application.
This is equally an issue for merit-seekers and for anyone who wants to see all their options, even a FP student.
The OP has done their research and is okay with an ED strategy.
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That seems to be twisting things and brushing off the equity issue a bit (not taking about the OP here, but about more general issues that the conversation had drifted to).
Years ago â cerainly less than a decadeâ, this was the case. It was the major beef about ED â you couldnât do it if you werenât FP because you couldnât know if the FA would be adequate.
But the schools have caught up with that by adding net price calculators that actually work. Some may offer a financial pre-read.
If you can afford the EFC they show after you go to the trouble of putting in your info, you can apply ED. This is how the equity issue has been addressed. Many also show expected merit as well. You can apply if it is affordable, not most affordable. Thatâs a trade all ED applicants make, even FP.
The schools have benefited as well because they can now build their classes more broadly in the ED rounds, no longer being limited to FP families. They donât have to worry about yield in this pool. And theyâre doing it!! Look at how few of the seats are left for RD applicants.
Itâs working for both sides.
This has probably added to the trend of increased ED acceptances at all schools. This is now a viable option for most applicants, and. the CCs I know who serve schools with a wide range of SES students are comfortable with it for all of them.
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This isnât a problem that ended years ago. More institutions and education policy advocates are critically examining Early Decision policies and their role in perpetuating inequities.
Here are some examples:
âCriticism has also mounted against early decision, which binds applicants to enroll if theyâre admitted. Early decision applicants do not know how much financial aid they will receive before committing, and so wealthy students are more likely to apply to colleges through this avenue.
At many selective colleges, early decision applicants have a sizable advantage over regular decision applicants. Brownâs committee will review its data on admitted students who applied early and via regular decision, according to its announcement.â
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This one too:
âEarly decision is a wonderful enrollment tool, but it is not in the best interest of the students,â Espinoza said. âAs a land-grant institution that serves working-class Virginians, we need to serve everyone in the state.â
But even as Espinoza and the admissions team at Virginia Tech strive for more-equitable access into one of the top public colleges in the stateâŠâ
After Affirmative Action and Legacy Admissions, Will Early Decision Be the Next to Go?
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OP: This post correctâalthough I would add âbreadthâ in addition to âdepthâ.
In my view, whether you apply to a National University or to an LAC for your particular interests may depend in part upon how dedicated you are to this particular area of study.
Once again, I encourage you to consider Duke, Yale, Dartmouth, & Brown.