Emma,
You are a competitive candidate for your reaches, but as others have noted, nothing is guaranteed nor should be expected. Your AP scores are a bit puzzling given your abilities and that will be scrutinized, but I don’t see other weaknesses.
Regarding the Harvard-MIT math competition, did your school send a team to HMMT in Cambridge? And you became a finalist as a sophomore? That’s a serious accomplishment given the national and international competition. Do you have other math accomplishments to go along with that such as AMC-10/12, and AIME scores?