Chance me for Caltech/MIT for physics + help find affordable OOS safeties [MS resident, 4.0 GPA, 1530 SAT, NMSF, need full ride]

If it were me, I would add the following changes:
Safety:
-Substitute University of Tulsa (small private school, 25% NMF) and UT-Dallas (bigger tech oriented school with a nerdy non-Greek vibe.) Both are admissions safeties to you because both LOVE NMFs and both are essentially full rides for NMFs. (Alabama is also an excellent free ride, and worth checking out Blount Scholars honors program, but perhaps is too much like your in-state schools.)

Match:
Check out Smith, Mt Holyoke, Scripps.

Reach:
Check out Harvey Mudd, Pomona, Wesleyan, Carleton

Here is the thread about the vibe at big merit schools for NMFs.:

Best of luck to you! My academic profile and financial situation were very similar to yours decades ago, so I am really wishing you well!

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