Weighted HS GPA (incl. weighting system): 4.31 (AP is 5, some Honors 5, everything else 4)
College GPA (for transfers):
Class Rank: none
ACT/SAT Scores: 1450 SAT (800 math, 650 reading)
Coursework
AP Calc AB/BC
AP Statistics
AP US History
AP Euro
AP Physics 1
AP Spanish
Honors English 1/2
Honors Chemistry
Calculus III at community college
Awards
-Junior of the Year for a monthly math competition going throughout the year
-Good Teammate Award for my club swim team in 9th grade
Extracurriculars
-club swimming
-math club member/VP junior year
-CyberPatriots, made Nationals junior year
-math competitions: AMC, ARML, Mathletes (made AIME 10th/11th grade with a 7 on AIME this year)
-varsity swimmer in my high school team
-COSMOS this summer, AwesomeMath 9th/10th summer
-tutored one student
Essays/LORs/Other (Optionally, guess how strong these are and include any other relevant information or circumstances.)
Cost Constraints / Budget (High school students: please get a budget from your parents and use the Net Price Calculators on the web sites of colleges of interest.)
Schools
Safety: FLC transfer to UC or CSULA, CSUS, SJSU
Target: UCD, UCI, UCSD, Cal Poly SLB
Reach: UCLA, UCB, MIT, Caltech
With UC admissions being very unpredictable this year, I second the suggestion to add ASU or UofA; UIUC is popular with my California relatives; MIT/CalTech are very high reaches - your SAT-V score is below average for your demographic . My DS2 is in the same demographic and his score of 700-V was said to be relatively low by our college counselor, and HYPSM are not even on his list to begin with!
Here is the 2020 admit data along with GPA ranges. Note that since all CSU’s and UC’s are test blind for the 2022 admission cycle, GPA will be far more important and Engineering STEM admit rates will be lower than posted.
2020 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 14%
UCLA: 8%
UCSD: 39%
UCSB: 40%
UCD: 55%
UCI: 38%
UCSC: 82%
UCR: 90%
UCM: 97%
2020 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 37%
UCLA: 38%
UCSD: 78%
UCSB: 81%
UCD: 86%
UCI: 60%
UCSC: 92%
UCR: 97%
UCM: 98%
2020 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.22 (4.13-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.31)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCSB: 4.15 (4.03-4.27)
UCI: 4.11 (3.96-4.26)
UCD: 4.11 (3.97-4.25)
UCSC: 3.94 (3.71-4.16)
UCR: 3.88 (3.65-4.11)
UCM: 3.68 (3.40-3.96)
I think you have gauged your chances pretty well but it will also depend upon which Engineering you are targeting. Applied Math is in the College of Letters and Sciences which does not admit by major but most Engineering is admit by major.
For Cal Poly SLO, Engineering admits rates vary. Ie. ME has around a 16% projected acceptance rate, Civil around a 38% acceptance rate, so SLO could be a target or a Reach school.
SJSU uses an impaction index to determine major thresholds. Here is the calculation for 2021 and the major thresholds. Impaction | Admissions
I would put UCSD as a high target for Engineering but a target for Applied Math and Science.
Which universities will consider race? Also, will having 2 B’s in freshman year and one in sophomore year be a big deal? (2 B’s were both English and another B was a challenge test)
None of the California public Universities will consider Race/Ethnicity in their admission decisions which are the majority of schools on your list. UC’s and CSU’s only consider 10-11th grades for their GPA calculation (exception Cal Poly SLO) but they still look at all grades for the a-g courses.
The majority of Universities will consider 9-11th grades and may also require 1st Senior transcripts in their admission review.
I often see people worried about admissions to UCB and UCLA. And they have like 4.0 unweighted GPA and 4.67 weighted, 1550+ SAT, leadership positions in like 5+ clubs and United Nations, 5 state- and national-level awards in CS, science bowl, math or music. I wonder if I can still compare. Is it just because I am not good enough with my stats or is it that they are just try-hards?
UCLA and UCB have acceptance rates overall below 15%. For 2021, the overall acceptance rate for UCLA was 10.8% and UCB was 14.5% so that is why they are considered Reach schools for all applicants.
You are a competitive applicant but there are no guarantees. UCLA had 139,463 applicants while UCB had 112,820 with the majority being from California. Too many qualified applicants for the number of spots available.