If I plug in your listed grades into the UC GPA calculator listed above, I get a UC UW GPA of 3.8 and UC Capped weighted of 3.9. Stanford also does not use Freshman grades in their admission decisions. Hopefully your writing will speak for itself but UCM and Stanislaus look like your only 2 realistic options. If you have the time and funds, I would apply to a few more schools unless you are happy with your safeties.