Chance me for UC's and reverse chance me for other schools

Former CA resident. I would be applying oos as an econ major. Chance me for UC’s specifically UCLA and UCB as well as USC(not a UC ik).
UW/W = School does not do unweighted/3.83
Freshman year: W:3.22
Sophomore year: 3.41
Junior Year: 4.86
UC unweighted: 3.41
UC Capped: 3.71
UC Weighted:4.07
All my bad grades come in sophomore year. I have straight A’s in junior year.
Course Load: 13 AP’s by the time I graduate. The 7 I have taken thus far I have gotten all 5’s.
SAT:1600
Math II: 800
Chemistry: 800
English: 760
EC’s:
Eagle Scout - 6 years of scouting - over 300 hours
4 years of fencing- varsity all 4 years/ captain as a junior and senior/ highly ranked in the region
4 years of robotics - 1 year captain/ team made states and won regional awards
4 years of speech and debate- mostly local awards
Published in an edition of a famous business magazine
300 hours of tutoring underprivileged kids

Fin Aid: Highest income bracket +oos

These analyses may help you establish a broader list of schools that would be excellent for the study of economics:

https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.usecondept.html

https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.uslacecon.html

As a suggestion, research an array of private colleges, of which some may be receptive to the broader aspects of your application. Consider Colgate, Boston College, Vanderbilt and Notre Dame, for example. Along these lines, your chances at USC might be pretty good. For a less challenging admit, look into Trinity (CT). Consider UCSD for a slightly less selective alternative to UCLA.

Former CA resident doesn’t mean “current.” You’re going to be paying out of state tuition. Not to mention that the cost of living out there is outrageous! A bachelors degree is seriously not worth that kind of money.

GPA will be an even bigger factor since test scores are optional for Fall 2021 and below a Capped weighted GPA of 4.0 for the UC’s listed will be a tough admit. Other than your GPA, the rest of your accomplishments make you a competitive applicant. If you have a compelling reason for the grade downturn Sophomore year, make sure it address it in one of the personal insight essays.

The UC’s will be full pay at around $65K/year so they would love to that extra OOS tuition.

Some UC admission data for reference below:

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 1%
UCLA: 2%
UCSD: 9%
UCSB: 6%
UCI: 7%
UCD: 9%
UCSC: 40%
UCR: 53%
UCM: 80%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

If you consider schools beyond the UCs, such as those in the article below, you may have a better chance of attending a highly selective college (even one from among the top 50 by this standard).

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/40090323

Cumulative GPA is the sticky point.

Unless you have a hook, chances of Cal and UCLA are near zero. But that’s ok, since paying OOS rates is not a good value anyway.

@Gumbymom @bluebayou
I miscalculated my UC GPA.
UC unweighted: 3.43
UC Capped: 4.00
UC Weighted:4.07

Does this make my chances any higher or am I still out of it?

UC’s only give 8 extra honors points for AP/IB classes for OOS applicants in the capped weighted calculation taken 10-11th grades. HS designated Honors classes are not UC approved for OOS applicants. If your UC unweighted GPA is 3.43, the maximum capped weighted GPA you could have is 3.83 not a 4.00.

Your original UC GPA’s you posted, make more sense.

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Better admission rates if the UC capped is over 3.8.

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 12%
UCLA: 7%
UCSD: 33%
UCSB: 32%
UCD: 47%
UCI: 35%
UCSC: 72%
UCR: 87%
UCM: 96%

I’m using rogerhub and those are the numbers that come up. Hmm… I think I’m using full year course grades, so I’m not sure what I’m doing wrong.

Thank you so much for your help, can I know where you’re finding this information?

The UC admission rates I quoted are taken from the link below. I just summarized the information from the graphs.

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary

Did you select year grades on the top of the RogerHub calculator vs. the default semester? If you took 7 AP’s between 10-11th grades, did you put down 7 honors points to match the year grades?

I put in 7 honors points and I got my capped to be 3.93. Which is still higher than what I had initially and lower than the number I just posted

The admit %’s I posted which are based on the 3.80 to 4.19 Capped weighted range would still put most of the UC’s as Reach schools and a 3.93 is still below the 25th percentile for 6 of the 9 UC’s based on 2019 data. Definitely worth a shot but being OOS, the stat threshold is generally higher than for in-state.

Example UCLA which has a 25th-75th percentile for UW UC GPA at 3.93-4.00 and Fully weighted UC GPA at 4.46-4.86.

http://www.admission.ucla.edu/Prospect/Adm_fr/Frosh_Prof19.htm