“I don’t want to get up in the $40,000s”
One daughter with similar stats got merit based aid from some schools that got the cost of attendance into the low 40’s. Getting lower than that limited the selection quite a bit. It will depend a lot on where you apply. Some schools came in at full price, which was of course much, much higher than “in the $40,000s”.
Have you run the NPC for Villanova? It might give you at least some sense of what is likely. If your parents are divorced or own a small business, farm, or rental properties, the NPCs are likely to be wrong (and too optimistic). Otherwise they are usually pretty good. They were spot on for us, but in many cases not very optimistic. Northeastern is one example where for us the NPC was exactly correct and not encouraging at all.
I am not very familiar with Villanova. However, with an acceptance rate below 30% I do not think that it is a safety for anyone.
We also got a mailing from Chicago, as well as Harvard and Stanford. The point is that they want more applicants in order to reduce their acceptance rate, since they already know how many students they are going to accept. It is just an ad.