Chance Me - strong math student

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

Hi, I’m looking to major in physics, possibly with an astronomy/astrophysics or math major. I’m looking primarily at colleges in the Northeast with some California ones thrown in. (Some details omitted for privacy)

Location: Northeast
School: Competitive magnet HS, class of 200-300, top 100 US
Ethnicity: Asian

GPA: 3.97 (UW)
School doesn’t rank, but I would guess at least top 10%
SAT: 1570 (800M, 770 EBRW)
SAT Math II, Chem, Physics: 800
AP CS A, Chem, Calc BC, Stats: 5

Sr. year coursework: AP Physics C, IB Lit Lang/History/Spanish SL, highest level math class (7 other students), Data Structures (basically maxed out)

ECs/Awards:
Math - co-captain (our math team is very strong nationally), 8 on the AIME, volunteer/organizational work for my school’s middle school math team/camp/contests. One of the math team coaches who taught me for two years is one of my recs. Went to HCSSiM.
USACO Gold Division, Top 5 at National TSA Competition, State SciOly, Physics Team, 15 on f=ma (aiming for USAPhO this spring), NHS, Columbia SHP

Colleges right now (would like to end up with a list of 12 or 13)
Princeton, Harvard, MIT, Yale, UPenn, John Hopkins, Caltech, Brown, Amherst, Cornell, Harvey Mudd, UMich, UVA, Rochester, [State school]

Is my college list right? I’m worried about my extracurriculars; I’m banking on Math carrying me.

2

Have you run the NPCs and are you and your parents fine with the results?

Most public schools give relatively little aid to out of state students. Michigan and UVA are however really good universities.

I think that I see 11 reaches, two out of state public schools that are probably also reaches, plus Rochester and your in-state flagship. If I take a wild guess that your in-state flagship is U.Mass Amherst, it is quite a good university and I have worked with many very strong graduates from there.

I think that you are competitive at any university. It is very hard to quantify your chances at your various reaches, but I would guess no better than the admissions percentages or slightly lower because of your being Asian without any obvious hook. Eliminating a few to get you down to 12 or 13 total applications probably depends upon what you want more than anything else. To me, I wonder about adding McGill since it would be pretty much a safety with your stats, but again this would depend upon how you feel about it compared to your in-state Flagship just in case one of the first 11 on your list does not work out.