Chance Me : UC/CSU and Others

Long time no see CC, Junior Year is on its way out, and senior year is right around the corner, which means I will be applying to colleges in next school year. Here is how things look so far after 1st semester of junior year.

Cumulative : 3.5333 GPA
UW : 3.3 GPA
10-12 A-G (W): 3.5625
SAT (1600 Scale) : Awaiting scores, took in earlier this month. I am anticipating a score around 1230/1600, and I plan to retakethe test (with essay) in June.
ACT: Will take in June

AP Scores (Past/Current/Planed)

10th
AP World History : 4
AP Eng. Lang : 4

11th (In-Progress)
APUSH
AP Env. Sci
AP Psychology
AP Lit. Comp

12th (Planned)
AP Comp Sci A
AP Government and Politics
AP Art History

Extracurricular Activities : general community service, Key Club, and other misc. clubs (Investors,Politics etc.)
Location : California

The colleges I plan on applying to are :

CSU(s) :

San Diego State University (Intended Major : Computer Science)
San Jose State University (Intended Major : Software Engineering)
CSU Fullerton ( IM : Computer Science)
CSU San Marcos* (Intended Major: Computer Science) * - High School has a “program” with CSUSM where maintaining a 3.0 GPA or above essentially gets you priority for admissions

and for UC’S

UC Riverside (target school) (Intended Major : Information Systems/Comp Sci, although I am looking at other majors at UCR, because my scores (imo) would make it near impossible to get in.)
UC Santa Cruz : (Refer to explanation above)
UC Merced : (Intended Major : Computer Science)

Acknowledging that some of the CSUs are impacted, the competitiveness of intended major (CS) , and a “questionable” GPA, what are the chances of admission to the colleges above? What are some other schools that may be a fit ? If it affects anything, I am going to be a first-generation college student as well.

I apologize in advance for such a long post, but thank you in advance CC.

My crystal ball says:

San Diego State University (Intended Major : Computer Science) - On the bubble - could go either way.
San Jose State University (Intended Major : Software Engineering) - Probably not.
CSU Fullerton ( IM : Computer Science) - Probably
CSU San Marcos* (Intended Major: Computer Science) * - Almost certainly

and for UC’S

UC Riverside - Probably not but, a strong essay could make all the difference.
UC Santa Cruz : (Refer to explanation above) - Probably not but, a strong essay could make all the difference.
UC Merced : (Intended Major : Computer Science) - Probably but, a weak application could get you weeded out.

I’d suggest adding a couple more CSUs to your list. Maybe Chico, Pomona and Long Beach.

Good luck

CSU’s are stats based on rely on the Eligibility index. (CSU GPA x800) + (SAT Math + CR) or (CSU GPA x200) + (ACT comp x 10)

For SDSU CS, you want around a 4200+ EI for SAT/1020+ EI for ACT for the best chances.
For SJSU CS, you want around a 3600+ EI for SAT/862+ EI for ACT.
For CSUF CS, you want around a 3800+ EI for SAT/800+ EI for ACT.
For CSUSM, I think you should be fine just based on GPA.

EI thresholds will fluctuate based on each year’s incoming class. Local applicants will get priority and can get in sometimes below the threshold limits.

UCM: You have a decent chance if you get your target test scores.
UCR: Could go either way but as @NCalRent stated, strong essays and EC’s could help. Many applicants rejected from SDSU this year, did get acceptances at UCR.
UCSC: Again could go either way based on essays, EC’s and test scores.

@Gumbymom @NCalRent Thank You !