I’d say duke is a pretty big reach. If be surprised if you got in but it’s certainly possible.
I think You have a better shot at Austin but still not great
UVA and chapel hill still aren’t matches button stand a good chance here too.
Id say 60/40 that you get into one of these maybe better. Best of luck!
Chance back? http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1851776-chance-me-ucb-ucla-ucsd-will-chance-back.html#latest