Your chances didn’t go down, they are what they are and you are becoming aware of it. Your personal chances may be higher than others of your stats, just due to your diverse background.
UW is really good about providing institutional stats (MUCH more transparent than University of MN!). Here they are for you to look at. The admission percentages by tuition residency begin on page 3. By ethnic on pages 5&6, by first generation status right after that:
https://apir.wisc.edu/admissions/New_Freshmen_Applicants.pdf
I already stated my case. OP- your extracurricular activities show that you have the spare time to do other things as well as get top grades. This indicates that you handle the rigorous academics without struggling. btw- the college you take classes from is nowhere near the intensity of UW’s (or U of M’s), but at a higher level than HS courses. I presume you realize this and want the challenge of being with an academically stronger peer group in college.
There are reasons schools are not entirely numbers driven. From the information the OP has given I believe it is likely UW will think success for this student at UW is likely. Plus- s/he has overcome challenges most students do not see. That is the reason schools consider underrepresented groups as a factor in admissions. Growing up in the Twin Cities (based on college classes) the OP will not face a huge cultural shock- s/he is used to being among the typical students found in this region.
OP- relax. You have done all you can to submit your best application. Now it is a wait and see period. Time for you to focus on having a great final year of HS- even if taking your classes elsewhere. Please put this out of your mind and use your time and energy to enjoy the next several months.
So- language this year uses defer instead of postpone. Same thing. UW is waiting to see if it has room once all of the applications are received by the deadline and they have a chance to review them. There will be clear admits (students with tippy top stats et al) of students who get around to a UW application just barely by the deadline. Some of those will be students who did not get their hoped for early decision admission to another school.
This is what I found from last year January 31st…lots of answers:
Rejected
Act 29, super scored 31
3.8 GPA
OOS NY
Interesting as I got rejected from Miami as well this weekend but accepted to Tulane, Indiana Kelley school of business, and only deferred from Michigan. Oh well, congrats to everyone who got in!
Accepted!!!
1980 SAT
3.90 GPA (uw), 4.2 (w)
class rank N/A, but within the top 9%
Great Recs/ Essays/ ECs
IL
33 ACT
91/100 GPA
Very Competitive HS
Straight axed, very disappointed
Postponed
33 ACT
3.98 W GPA
Great extracurriculars/ recs/ essays imo
Got deferred by Northwestern earlier and now this … don’t even know what to say
Accepted
Illinois
33 ACT
3.53 unweighted GPA/3.85 weighted gpa—brother goes there right now.
Had a strong upward trend.
OOS postponed……GPA 3.85, SAT 1950, lots of AP’s and extra-currics……sad……
Postponed. California 1940 SAT and 3.7 UW gpa. Lots of leadership and extracurriculars.
ACCEPTED
CT Resident
30 ACT
2030 SAT
3.86 Weighted GPA
5 AP classes