Chance my Kid for his ED (Tufts) and Other Schools (and maybe propose another match or 2?)

Chance Me / Match Me!
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US citizen; Nassau County, NY, mediocre public school)
Mixed race; African American Recognition Program Award (College Board)
Duke legacy (but not applying to Duke, alas–I tried, but he doesn’t want to go to “the South,” wants to be within a day’s drive of home)

Intended major: Sociology (?)

GPA: 97/100 unweighted
Class Rank: not calculated by school, but in top 10
SAT: 1480
12 AP Classes; 5 4’s; 2 3’s (not reporting); currently taking 5 AP classes

Awards
President’s Volunteer Service Award
AP Capstone Diploma; AP Scholar with Distinction
HS Principal’s List all 3 years so far + various course-level awards + honors societies (co-founded Science Honors Society)

Summer Programs, ECs:
YYGS
Youth About Business (leadership team, 2 summer programs)
Wharton Moneyball Training Camp program
Jazz guitarist; Young Arts Award Applicant; NYSSMA level 6; HS jazz band+ local gigs
NYS HS Honors Choir; HS Select Chorale
Varsity track (but not super-competitive)
Youth Justice Leadership Team (EC with LI-based nonprofit, recently started)
Summer jobs

Essays/LORs/Other
Essays are quite strong

Cost Constraints / Budget
We are broke lolsob

Schools
ED: Tufts
EA: Case Western; Northeastern; Binghamton
RD (maybe one of these will go ED2?): Amherst, Boston C, Brown, Colgate, Cornell, Hamilton, Haverford, Middlebury, Skidmore, Swarthmore, Syracuse, Vassar, Wesleyan, Williams

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He needs to dd more safety/matches, this is a list almost exclusively of reaches. Also likely need more affordable options since you say finances are an issue. Can you afford all the private schools with your expected contribution?

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Lots of reachy schools, including many that only provide need-based aid. Have you run the net price calculators for all of these?

I agree that you need more balance to this list. What resources are provided by the high school? Do you have access to Naviance or Scoir scattergrams?

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What’s the budget? Have the Net Price Calculators been showing an affordable number for your family? (If not, that lets us know that merit aid is needed.)

It appears as though there’s a preference for medium to small colleges in the northeast. Is there anything else that he is looking for in a college?

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I’d say he has a better than 60% shot at Tufts. They are stats sensitive and his scores are decent and class rank is excellent. His activities are very Tufts. Tufts is not known to be terribly generous with FA, so that could get in his way. But they also like those who love them, and what better way to say that than ED. If you ran their NPC and got an EFC you can afford, this could work out.

I’ll echo the others and suggest you come up with some less selective schools that also have an affordable EFC. Hopefully, you won’t need them, but if you don’t get an ED answer you like from Tufts, it’d be good to be ready to fire off some additional apps that will guarantee some choice in the spring.

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did he get Young Arts or just apply?

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I concur with others on the list.

The concern with Tufts is that they are need aware. They are 2/3 full pay - so they definitely like full-pay students. But you bring diversity and that will help.

SUNY B is the safety of course so if you’re happy there - then you are fine although applying for a second safet may be smart.

The issue with Syracuse, as an example, will be aid - they don’t guarantee to meet need.

Interesting list - you have a ton of LACs but then some bigger. A couple mid size but mostly LACs but then SU and NEU - so not sure why/how those fit?

Again, if you are ok with SUNY B since you are broke (TAP?), then the list is fine.

You might also look at Pitt - it’s late - but they have the Cathedral of Learning. I’m sure others in the NE have diversity scholarships as well although I’m not sure which.

Good luck.

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From your original list, in terms of admissions, Syracuse is extremely likely, Binghamton is likely, Skidmore is a toss-up, and Vassar is less probable (how I define those terms is below). For the rest of the schools, I’d say lower probability, with the possible exception of Tufts as your son has gone ED there, but the Common Data Set didn’t report what the difference in admissions rates are between RD and ED. As we don’t know budget, I’m only guessing on admissions and not on affordability.

All of these schools offer merit aid, to varying degrees, and that could also help the price be more affordable. They also have good-sized sociology departments (based on the actual number of sociology grads and/or the proportion of sociology grads). I also placed a CTCL by the schools that are members of Colleges That Change Lives, an association of small schools focusing on undergraduate education that usually have more approachable acceptance rates, another place where you might want to look for additional options.

Extremely Likelies (80+%)

  • Hobart William Smith (NY)
  • Lincoln (PA ), HBCU
  • McDaniel (MD) - CTCL
  • Quinnipiac (CT)
  • SUNY Geneseo

Likelies (60-79%)

  • Clark (MA) - CTCL
  • College of the Holy Cross (MA)
  • Gettysburg (PA )
  • Providence (RI)
  • St. Lawrence (NY)

Toss-Up (40-59%)

  • Brandeis (MA)
  • Bucknell (PA )
  • Lafayette (PA )

Less Probable (20-39%)

Lower Probability (less than 20%)

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This list is a non-starter if you are unwilling to pay for what your EFC is or willing to let your son take out massive debt WITH YOU COSIGNING. To me, that is a terrible idea given that the major is sociology with a ? next to it.
That said, I would pick Swarthmore for ED2. That might well be your best bet.
I would say Northeastern is a solid match with this profile but will be a lot of $$.

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These days Northeastern is only a match for ED applicants.

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Thanks to all for your thoughtful replies, particularly to those who suggested additional colleges to add, perhaps replacing others currently on the list. I was too glib about the money part–we have done our due diligence (including net price calculator checks, etc.) and we have a dedicated 529 account. We will certainly need aid but we can handle a percentage of the costs (which we have calculated) and we will not pay more than we have calculated is reasonable. Thanks again! Appreciate the feedback. :pray:

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For the record, I do believe your student will attain acceptances to some of the reaches on his list, but it is always good to de-risk when dealing with so-called lottery schools. Good luck to him (and you)!

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Applied in October, haven’t received results yet.

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Off the topic of your question, but how was the Moneyball Training Camp for your student?

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Not my son’s cup of tea, but that probably has more to do with his personal preferences/intellectual strengths than with the program itself. It was also virtual, in the summer 2021, by which time he’d reached the end of his capacity for virtual learning…

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Thank you! Grateful for your kind wishes.

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This student is URM with excellent academics, so I expect that there will be some schools which will be throwing money at him. Many schools ranging from Harvard to Rochester are busy trying to improve theit diversity, so this student will be very desirable to colleges in this position.

Bottom line is that he’s an applicant with a hook, so the normal stats on admission don’t apply to him.

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Well he sounds like a great kid. He has some similarities with mine! Good luck to him on the ED round and the Young Arts!

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Thank you! Appreciate it.

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Applicants with hooks might have improved odds, but it doesn’t make their odds great. Perhaps a hooked student has a 15% chance of admittance instead of a 5% chance for an unhooked student. Yes, their odds are three times greater than the unhooked. But the odds still aren’t great.

Yes, I think that it is entirely possible, and maybe even probable, that OP’s son will gain acceptance to 1+ of his reaches. But he’ll also be competing against students with a 1560 SAT who were raising 5 or 6 figures for charity through a business they started and they were winning regional or state individual awards for their ECs. That doesn’t mean that OP’s son isn’t qualified to attend any school on his application list. But the competition is stiff, hook or not, as there are students with the eye-popping accomplishments that are still denied admission. There’s a reason why a number of people call them highly rejective colleges.

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