Chance NC Resident [3.3 GPA, political science or business]

Chance Me / Match Me!
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North Carolina, living in Wake County, Public High School (1900 student pop), Hispanic, first generation, low income
I’m a rising senior in high school.
Intended Major(s) Political Science or Business

GPA, Rank, and Test Scores

  • Unweighted HS GPA: 3.3

  • Weighted HS GPA (incl. weighting system): 3.8

  • Class Rank: 200ish or so

  • ACT/SAT Scores: I haven’t taken the SAT yet but I will do so in my senior year, I’m expecting around a 1200-1400 score.

Coursework
11 AP’s, 3 DE’s

Awards
ESL Award, AP Scholar
Extracurriculars
Served as Governor Page, Student Election Assistant, Camp Counselor for two summers, HOSA Historian, JROTC in Freshman year, SNHS, and NEHS.

Good essays and great LORs.

Schools

  • Safety*: UNC Wilmington, UNC Charlotte, East Carolina University
  • Match - NC State University (Dream school)
  • Reach - UNC Chapel Hill, UVA
    I’m also applying to UChicago and Northwestern, I’m aware that my chances are slim to none, but I’m applying anyways.
    I also got a D in my math class sophomore year, a C in math Junior Year, and a C in Chemistry the second semester of my junior year.
    Please give me honest feedback on my chances for Chapel Hill and NC State specifically, these are my top “dream” schools that I’d really like to go to but my below average GPA for these colleges are making me feel like I’m not going to get in. Also, how much is the D in math and two C’s in math and chemistry going to affect my application ?
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I’m not an adcom, but I think both of these schools are reaches.

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Your guidance counselor must know your odds extremely well, especially UNC and NC State.

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Rank 200 of how many ?

Why waste your time. You are not getting into Chicago or Northwestern.

Denver is a cross shop safety for Chicago turndowns but more a match or maybe slight reach for you.

Syracuse the same for Northwestern but again unlikely for you.

Is UNCW a safety ? What’s your weighted GPA as they calculate it ?

You clearly have rigor but they are looking for a 3.8 weighted etc.

Good luck but be realistic. You aren’t.

Make sure you would like to attend one of your safeties.

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One friend of a daughter went to Chicago. He might have been the strongest student in her middle school class, and one of the two strongest students in math. I honestly do not know if he every had any grade other than A’s through high school. He used to come over during breaks and complain about how much work U.Chicago is.

U.Chicago is a very good university. However, it is academically very demanding. I would not expect it to be a good fit for a student with a 3.3 unweighted GPA.

However, I expect you to do well with some of the other universities on your list. I like the fact that you have identified three safeties, which is how students really should start their college list.

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Check whether the D grade disqualifies that course from counting toward the 4 years of math that NC public universities require for frosh admission. If it does, you may need to repeat it and earn a C or higher grade.

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UNC is probably very unlikely (C’s & D’s, class rank and Wake County won’t help you) but maybe your essay and LOR’s would be compelling to whomever reads your application? You never know unless you apply but I would temper your expectations accordingly and if you’re accepted, you’ll be all the more excited. Same with UVA (is cost an issue? UVA will be very expensive for OOS student).

11 AP’s and AP Scholar are good but they may wonder what happened with the C’s & D in the science & math.

NC State would be a reach too, I’m afraid. It’s always been tough for the STEM majors, but now business-related majors are becoming more popular and a tougher admit as well. I don’t know anything about Poly Sci there. Does your high school use Naviance or something similar with scattergrams that you can check to see how students from your high school with similar stats did?

Continue to work on your essay and turn it from “Good” to “Great” (both UNC & NC State have supplemental essays, so make those exceptional), figure out a budget and search on this site for additional safeties and targets in NC & out of state that match your budget. Most colleges have business and poly sci programs, so there should be many to choose from depending on how far you want to travel.

Another possibility is trying to transfer to NC State or UNC after freshman year. I know two students who did that from UNCW. You would have to crush your freshman year GPA though. If you go business, be aware that UNC’s business school is a very competitive admit. You could transfer and not get into the business school there (you could possibly fall back on poly sci).

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@CollegeNerd67 the student said they are low income in the first post. UVA meets full need for OOS students. But I do agree, getting accepted would be a reach.

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I went through this with my URM son in 2020, and a few students I assisted in the application process in 2021 and 2022. Here’s what I’ve gathered.

Though other factors come into play on the periphery, NC public universities by and large admit based on GPA, then Test Scores. It wasn’t crystal clear to me how admissions considers weighted versus unweighted.

UNC and NCSU: A 3.3UW will pretty much lock you out of UNC and NCSU. If something between the 3.3UW and the 3.8W is considered, you’ll have a slightly better chance.

Wilmington and Charlotte: A 3.3UW will make both of these slight reaches for you. FWIW, App State will be in the same category, though you didn’t ask about that one. You’ll help your chances by scoring closer to 1400.

ECU: This is your true safety, along with UNC-G. Your admission should be practically guaranteed. Apply EA in August and you’ll have your decision a few weeks later. It will feel good to have that acceptance and make the long wait till Jan/March for the other NC schools more bearable.

UVA: Almost no chance as an OOS applicant. I know a few recent URM admits who have gotten in with slightly better UW GPAs, but they were in-state in VA. FWIW, my son was admitted into VA Tech. If your family can’t easily afford $30K/yr, don’t bother applying to VA Tech because it will provide very little Financial Aid for OOS applicants.

Chicago and NW: As you said, both will be extreme reaches. Go ahead and apply, because there’s always that 0.005% chance they find something irresistible about your application, but assume both are NOs.

If you truly have a desire to go to OOS, you should spend a lot of time getting more informed about a wider variety of schools and destinations.
1st, cut way back on chasing the highly rejective schools highly ranked on two or three sites.
2nd, decide what’s really important to you. Small (under 3000 enrollment), Medium (3500-12000) or Large (20000+). Bustling city (NYC/DC/Boston/Chicago), regular city, suburban, college town, or rural? Will Male/Female ratio matter? How far do you really want to go - stick to the mid-atlantic, go further up to NY and MA, is the deep south ok, the midwest, the west coast? How much can your family afford to pay out of their own pocket - $1000/yr, $4000yr, $10000/yr, more? What else matters to you?

If you’re interested in looking beyond the in-state NC public school options, answer these questions and you’ll get some great suggestions here.

BTW, don’t plan to wait until you receive a decision from UNC/NCSU before applying to other non-NC options. If you’re serious about having a variety of options to choose from next April, try to apply Early Action to all the schools on your final list that offer Early Action applications.

Good luck!

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For the schools that you have identified for applications, you might want to look at the most recent Common Data Set for each of them. Section C7 will tell you how each school weighs various academic and non-academic admission factors; Sections C9-C11 will give you test score and GPA information about recently matriculated students at each school.

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Yes, OP should definitely not do that since both of these college’s decisions come in at the end of January (usually within a few days of each other).

Virginia Tech has gotten very popular with OOS students and therefore much harder to get into since my daughter has been there. I would put it in the reach category for an OOS student with these stats. If the money works, they can try JMU or George Mason. Other mid-large state U’s that, 4-5 years ago, were safeties for a lot of people, are now low-mid reaches due to increased popularity- UofSC, UTK, College of Charleston come to mind. If the money works and they want a mid-large state U in the South, they could also try Coastal Carolina, FAU, University of Kentucky & UCF.

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For a true low-income family, it’s certain the money will not work for any of these OOS public universities. In-state NC cost for a Pell Grant eligible student will be $20K-55K less expensive than almost every OOS public school, not including travel expenses.

If this student has a budget under $10K/yr and wants to go OOS, he will have to aim for a private institution to get the FinAid he’ll need.

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Western Carolina University might be an option. Here is a link to the NC Promise information on the admissions/aid page: Western Carolina University - Undergraduate Tuition and Financial Aid

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Include App State too.

Did you “make up” your D in Math?

You have excellent course rigor. Try applying to some of the “Colleges that Change Lives”: they typically have solid financial aid and most meet need for lower-income students. Look into St Olaf and Kalamazoo (if you’re willing to travel: they don’t have many applicants from NC so you’d have a boost just from being from there) and they’ll appreciate the curriculum rigor.
Another strong option for you is Berea College.
All 3 are reaches but if they admit you they’re very strong academically and they have good financial aid.

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Your safeties are your matches, except ECU. NC State is a reach. Honestly I think the chances are not great that you will get in UNC or NC State, but better for State than Carolina. I am in NC, too. UNC-Greensboro should be on your list. It’s a good school and more likely to be a safety for you. You could also look at UNC-Asheville. That would be a good target/match. Maybe App State as a target, too.

Your EC’s are very good. Did you take the pre-ACT? Have you taken any AP Exams and if so did you get any 4s & 5s? Have you gotten your ACT score yet? (For those reading along at home, the ACT is required for all high school juniors in public school, including charter schools, in NC, whether the student is college bound or not. It’s for accountability and benchmarking.)

For reference my white D22 had a 3.7 weighted GPA and a 28 ACT (very uneven – high in English and Reading, not great in Math and Science), 3 AP classes with 2 4s on exams and one 2 or 3 (I can’t remember). She had mostly As & Bs, never had a D, maybe had 1 C in a math class but I think they were mostly Bs. She did not apply to UNC or State because 1) she didn’t want to go to either one and 2) she didn’t think she would get in. She did get in UNC-G and UNC-A. Didn’t apply to UNC-W, UNC-C, ECU, or App State, but I think she would’ve had good chances at all of those and I think you do too, but I would view them as Targets rather than safeties.

You can do a search on the college name and “Common Data Set” and that will give you the average SAT/ACT and GPA of students who are accepted to the school.
UNC: Common Data Set | OIRA
NCState: https://report.isa.ncsu.edu/ir/cds/pdfs/CDS_2022-23.v2.pdf
ECU: https://ipar.ecu.edu/research/rsrch-public-ecu-data/

Note for UNC Chapel Hill the high school GPAs:
Percent who had GPA of 4.0 = 93%
Percent who had GPA between 3.75 and 3.99 = 3%
Percent who had GPA between 3.50 and 3.74 = 2%
Percent who had GPA between 3.25 and 3.49 = 1%
Percent who had GPA between 3.00 and 3.24 = 1%

For NC State:
Percent who had GPA of 4.0 20%
Percent who had GPA between 3.75 and 3.99 57%
Percent who had GPA between 3.50 and 3.74 19%
Percent who had GPA between 3.25 and 3.49 3%
Percent who had GPA between 3.00 and 3.24 1%

For ECU:
Percent who had GPA of 4.0 3.07%
Percent who had GPA between 3.75 and 3.99 15.16%
Percent who had GPA between 3.50 and 3.74 18.55%
Percent who had GPA between 3.25 and 3.49 17.86%
Percent who had GPA between 3.00 and 3.24 19.45%
Percent who had GPA between 2.50 and 2.99 24.40%
Percent who had GPA between 2.0 and 2.49 1.51%

Note also that ECU’s CDS says that they do not consider standardized tests for acceptance (not sure but a good score might still get you placed out of freshman English or something). I don’t know if this is a COVID thing or a continuing policy. The CDS will also tell you what criteria are most important when they make acceptance decisions, so this is for ECU:

ECU Relative importance of Academic factors:
Rigor of secondary school record Very Important
Class rank Important
Academic GPA Very Important
Standardized test scores Not Considered
Application Essay Very Important
Recommendation(s) Not Considered

Extra curriculars for ECU are mostly in the “considered” column

For NC State it’s:

NC State Relative importance of Academic factors:
Rigor of secondary school record Very Important
Class rank Very Important
Academic GPA Very Important
Standardized test scores Important
Application Essay Considered
Recommendation(s) Considered

And again most EC’s are in the “considered” column.

So I would view UNC- Chapel Hill as a very high reach; NC State as a reach; UNC-W and UNC-C as targets; ECU and UNC-G as safeties.

Western Carolina, Elizabeth City State, and UNC-Pembroke have a tuition reduction program from the state called the NC Tuition Promise Plan that makes these schools a little cheaper tuition wise (still have to pay the going rate for room and board). For WCU it would come out to about $15k a year including housing and meal plan, with tuition being about $5k of that.

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