Chance of my kid becoming Finalist?

Parent of a NMSF here. I kept reading that “most” people who are SemiFinalists become finalists (15k out of 16k), and that unless someone doesn’t submit an application, or someone has terrible grades (Cs or below) or discipline issues, they are a shoe-in. Fast forward to discovering these boards, where stories abound of someone’s kid with something like a 3.5 unweighted GPA and 10 AP classes who didn’t make the cut, reason given was low grades - yikes!
My kid has 3.48 weighted gpa (no Cs, just a lot of Bs and As) at a rigorous school, 4 AP classes, several more honors classes, 33 ACT, Eagle Scout, one year-round sport, etc. But it’s looking like he may get rejected for those grades, right? Just wondering how much time/effort we should put into applying to schools offering NMF scholarships if he won’t qualify in the end.
Thoughts? Experiences?

It may depend on your state, but Bs and above should be OK.

DS2015 made it through to NMF with one semester C in honors chem during sophomore year. Usually, Cs and below can be an issue, but there are always exceptions. (DS’s counselor addressed his particular issue in her recommendation to NMSC, which probably helped.)

If you’re looking for good scholarship opportunities (noting your username) be sure to check out U of Alabama, U of Arizona, and U of Tulsa. The Tulsa scholarship is for SEMIfinalsts - so your DC should check it out now. The scholarship must be new and it’s a FULL ride. We’ve visited TU before and the campus is beautiful. DD needs to investigate further, but she’s applying before the Nov. 1 EA deadline because the app fee is waived by TU until then.

Good luck!

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I agree that with his GPA it’s not a sure thing, but it’s still possible. So I think he should still apply to the NMF full tuition and full ride schools that appeal to him. Most of them have pretty straightforward applications. And anyway, some of them offer good money to semifinalists (Alabama, U of Tulsa etc.) What type of schools appeal to him?

Best of luck!

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