Similar boat here. Cal Poly SLO is S21’s top choice school, with some UCs right behind on the list. But he will be an EE major and wants to be in labs and the classroom. HS distance learning’s been abysmal. If the CSUs and UCs can’t figure out how to get freshmen on campus, I suspect he will look seriously at the OOS schools he’s been accepted to as an alternative. Hopefully we’ll have a better read on that by May 1, but I suspect we will still be flying somewhat blind.
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Watch vaccine availability, and whether any virus variants show up that can cause serious sickness in those who have gotten vaccines. These are the things that college administrations cannot control but must react to.
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On a side note. I have a D21 who will major in EE as well. Doesn’t it seem like EE is getting to be a popular major within engineering? That is what I am seeing.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is effective against the South African variant at one dose, for which it is already approved, and they are also testing it right now with two doses.
I live in Chapel Hill. I think UNC will be open for mostly in person classes in the fall. That is based off nothing but a gut feeling. If the variants go crazy they could shut back down. They may continue to require students do testing and wear masks, but my feeling is that things will be better in the fall.
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S21 is my first going to college, so I can’t say that I’ve tracked it to know whether it’s popular or not, but it does seem very competitive. If you look at Cal Poly SLO’s stats, EE had significantly fewer applicants than several of the other engineering majors.
I will say I’m SO glad he switched from CS to EE. This admissions year is so crazy, don’t need to have the #1 most competitive engineering major on top of it!
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My 5-year old, and all the kids at her school, have zero problems wearing a mask all the time. As far as they know, this is just another in a long list of imposed rules. Ride a car seat, wear a helmet, wash hands, line up here. From their point of view, Covid and all its restrictions are just a normal part of life.
Starting in teenage years, kids taste freedom and think they’re invulnerable. They’re
Just as a note, I track vaccine manufacturing and my numbers suggest that by the end of the second quarter the US will be oversupplied with vaccines. By my approximation, vaccine supply will be high enough that roughly have the adult population can be partially or fully vaccinated by the end of Q1, and depending on demand (i.e. how many adults do not presently want the vaccine) that will lead to “anyone” being vaccinated in the March-May timeframe.
Since vaccine supply > population in Q2 (my analysis), I think all schools will be pretty normal in September.
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I agree that our current issue with supply will be over sometime in the spring. And demand will become the main issue soon after. However, “normality” in the fall will depend on one’s definition. I expect students will be back on campus everywhere, but some restrictions will remain and the degree of these restrictions will vary among colleges (based on locality, density, proportion of students living off-campus or commuting, etc.) Large in-person lecture classes will be a thing of the past and they will remain online. Lab courses and small discussion-based courses will be in-person. Other types of courses could be either remote or in-person, depending on the college. There will be limits on the size of any congregation on campus. Not all of us will be happy with the arrangements but most of us will be content after the year we had.
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If vaccines are readily available for everyone who wants them, and there is no new variant that bypasses the vaccines, then the rationale of the restrictions to protect people against involuntary COVID-19 risk goes away. Seems like that would mean lifting restrictions; those who refuse the vaccines would then be taking risks for themselves, rather than imposing the risks on others.
The only difficulty with this scenario would be for those who are medically unable to get any of the vaccines, since vaccine refusers will be numerous enough to prevent herd immunity. But protecting them in a “normal on-campus environment” (versus such people continuing remote instruction) would likely require heavier restrictions that most would tolerate.
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Well, exactly what “normal” means is beyond my pay grade. I should say “relatively normal” compared to what we are all experiencing today.
I think it’s plausible (this isn’t a projection, but within a range of outcomes) that by fall: 60% of the entire population (including young kids) are vaccinated, and that of the remaining population, enough have caught Covid that it’s not spreading much in the community. In that situation, you’d see localized flare ups and certain schools might effectively lock-down for a few weeks, but otherwise things might be normal.
It really depends on the specific college’s degree of covid absolutism. Some are willing to accept some degree of outbreak in covid management and have already returned to almost normal. Others want covid eradicated on campus, and will retain restrictions towards that goal. Most will reflect their location’s general approach, so schools in the south are more likely to open normally while those in California likely will not.
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@ucbalumnus , I fear you are correct and that those who are medically unable to get any of the vaccines will be left behind. It’s not shocking - our society was overwhelmingly ableist well before Covid-19 - but it’s yet another example of how individuals with disabilities are expected to be the ones to make any necessary sacrifices and fend for themselves. People with medical issues are simply expected to miss out on many opportunities so other “healthy” people can live their lives to the fullest without the inconveniences of supporting others.
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What do you suggest is done to fix this problem in an ideal world ?
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@sdl0625 I suggest in an ideal world people take care of each other.
For example, there were research papers published earlier in the pandemic that showed that if around 80% of people wore masks and avoided unnecessary socializing for something like 6-8 weeks, Covid-19 would be reduced to the point that we could return to a much more “normal” living environment for all.
But sadly, many people decided that it impinged upon their personal freedoms to be told they should wear a mask. So they refused, and almost a full year later, many folks continue to go about their lives proudly mask-less.
Now, folks that are at higher risk (the elderly, the medically compromised, etc.) have massively lost their freedoms (and sadly in way too many cases, their lives), in large part because people who could have made some small sacrifices decided they shouldn’t have to give up anything to help someone else.
Being thoughtful of others is not complicated, but it does take positive intention. To answer your question, in an ideal world, there would be much more of this.
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The real world solution for other communicable diseases is high enough vaccination rates to produce herd immunity that protects those medically unable to get the vaccines.
Unfortunately, refusal of COVID-19 vaccine will likely be high enough to prevent herd immunity. Even if a school implements mandatory (except for medical reasons) vaccination for all students, faculty, and staff, there will still be COVID-19 circulating in the surrounding community to threaten those medically unable to get the vaccines.
Herd immunity is still possible in that case if we adopt stringent measures to control the virus transmission. The threshold necessary for herd immunity depends on the how effectively the virus can transmit. If fewer people are immunized, we will have to continue (or even strengthen) those measues that can reduce transmission.
Enough people have already given up on trying to stop/slow transmission that it will be politically unlikely to have much support for continuing existing social distancing etc. measures or making them stricter. After general vaccine availability, the desire to get back to pre-COVID-19 normal will only increase.
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I agree, I don’t think herd immunity is a reasonable expectation, at least for the foreseeable future.
I.e. like what New Zealand actually did, which was weeks of very strict restrictions to eliminate the virus domestically, followed by lifting of all domestic restrictions (but retaining strict quarantine requirements to stop imported cases). Occasional imported outbreaks were stamped out by strict lockdown in the outbreak area for a few weeks, followed by going back to normal.
In contrast, the US could not get agreement for short term pain to get long term gain, so the US got long term pain.
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California tried the same method as New Zealand … but being a small island nation with only 5 million people surrounded by water for thousands of miles and only one current port of entry for international arrivals makes a tremendous difference. Unfortunately, I don’t think this method could be replicated on continents that have over 300 million people.
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@ucbalumnus , yes.
What’s most pathetic is that what the “couldn’t sacrifice for others” group still hasn’t learned a year into this, is that in taking these steps to protect others, their quality of life and safety would greatly increase as well.
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