Chances at Bates, Conn College, Middlebury?

My public school attending white Vermonter daughter’s
top choices are Middlebury, Conn College and Bates.
She is ready to apply early decision.
She is trying to decide if Middlebury
is such a long shot that she would be
throwing away the advantage of early decision applying there
and how much she needs that advantageespecially at Bates

Her GPA is 3.58
Class rank 10/187 5.3%
5 APs and the rest of her core classes are honors classes
She has received principal’s honors each year and
a couple other academic awards/honors
Her scores:
ACT overall 30,
Engish 30, Math 27, Reading 36,
SAT total 1350, Math 680, R & W 670, reading 34
Her love is dance - hopes to minor in dance
has taking Irish and ballet for years,
part of the high school dance team for four years
other activities: children’s choir for many years
some gymnastics and circus arts
Senior year she has joined the
high school choruses and musical
Will have one stellar teacher recommendation in math
and one that is hopefully very good in English.
She is thought of highly by the guidance department
as she has been a mature steady support for
a couple of kids in crisis.
In general, she is not the flashy kid out in front
but the one in back with the big picture in mind
making sure the details are taken care of.
Hopefully, that steady maturity will come through
in her recommendations.
She has a small part time job and pretty much
no community service.

Thanks for your thoughts!

“She is trying to decide if Middleburyis such a long shot that she would be
throwing away the advantage of early decision applying there”

Honestly… I would say yes, she probably is throwing away that advantage there.

I agree with @silas1829. THE only question I have is whether Middlebury tries to give preference to kids from Vermont. THERE is ED1 and ED2…

Do you have Naviance?

I think Conn is her best shot, being honest. I don’t see Midd as being very realistic at all. MAYBE Bates ED, but very hard to say. I think Bates wants high stats kids when they are unhooked, being honest. My kid goes to Bates and she had much higher stats than your D. She got in from WL, but we are both sure she would have got in ED. Bates is big on first gen, URM, and native Mainers. Doesn’t Conn have a great dance program?

The GPA is hard to gauge without knowing the school. Rank is excellent. Conn is big on demonstrated interest, including ED. In fact, that’s the one where ED is likely to tip the scales the most, I g hink.

Based on DS experience, certainly in the range for Bates and Conn. But it’s hard to adjust for what a college wants in terms beyond stats.

Yes, but kids numbers are not entered by her school so not very useful.

I also made an error in writing her GPA - Her weighted GPA is 3.68 and (the weighting is simply and additional 0.1 to each AP.)

Sorry, what does DS and URM mean?

Thanks, we have now ruled out Middlebury for ED
Both Conn and Bates have great dance programs. She had a great visit to the dance program at Conn. We have visited both of them twice.
It is hard to gauge how they compare academically and socially.
She is really looking for serious academics along with an open minded, respectful environment.

Conn’s higher drop out rate and complaints of a dogmatically liberal administration make me wonder if it is the better choice.

Dear son. Under represented minority.

Honestly, she’s in the ballpark for all 3. Closest to home plate with Conn, furthest with Middlebury. If Middlebury is her first choice, I would tell her to ED1 there because why should she not pursue her #1 choice.? MY best guess is that she’ll be deferred to RD in that round but not rejected. AT that point, she can decide if she wants to ED2 one of the other 2. In the RD round, and with the WL, having applied ED can help a bit. I would make sure she’s spent time on any campus where she does ED. (Bates does overnight visits. ) She should be sure too that this is how she wants to use that chance. BTw, if she has good AP scores, self reporting those can help because it shows that she mastered the matrial even if her grade in the class was a B, for example.

I know @Lindagaf 's DD had better stats than my son, but who knows how gender, geography, essays, recs. feed into this. It’s such a tough call.

Connecticut College would be so good for dance that giving it preference over Bates in terms of her interests would be a direction I might recommend. Kenyon would be particularly strong for dance as well.

For a statistical analysis that could help you compare her chances at various schools, you can read through here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-610-smartest-colleges-in-america-2015-9

Regarding Connecticut College’s graduation rate, this figure connects mathematically to the entering student profile. In this sense, CC compares exactly to Middlebury, in that the schools both “underperform” by -2. The rate for Bates appears as -3.

(Source: USNWR.)

Merc81, you lost me. I would like to understand what you are saying. Could you elaborate on what you mean by “underperform” and what value is indicated by the negative number and how does this relate to student retention? Thank you!

She had a great time with the dance department when we visited Conn and we both liked the way they talked about the integration of double majors (dance and an math or dance and psych are what she is thinking now but far from a solid decision) but I am not sure that wasn’t just a bit of luck of running into the right person at Conn. She was higher than a kite after a choreography class at Bates but we did not get a clear feel of the department there. Any thoughts about dance at Bates? Math at Conn? I think psych is strong both places.

Okay, I did a little reading … a negative value means “underperfoming” which is to say its reputation is lagging behind its achievement. So you are positing that this would indicate that kids at an underperforming school would generally not be disappointed after arriving as the schools performance would in general exceed it’s reputation and this makes you worry less about the drop out rate?
Did I get that right?

Graduation rate underperformance would not be “good,” but the metric indicates that the transfer/non-completion rates for these schools would be similar when adjusted for baseline factors:

Graduation Rates

Expected Rate | Actual Rate | Underperformance

Connecticut College | 85% | 83% | -2
Middlebury | 96% | 94% | -2
Bates | 91% | 88% | -3
______________

Bates may offer the strongest psychology program from within this group, but should not be expected to be as strong in dance as Conn. For a particularly strong math department, consider Hamilton (not sure about their dance opportunities specifically, though their facilities are excellent).

Definitely can get in ED at either Bates or Conn College. Both would be thrilled to have a VT kid of that caliber who want them. Midd is a stretch for anyone, and likely there will be kids from VT with higher stats.

I give your D, who sounds like a great kid, very little chance at Midd. Looking at my schools naviance, Bates and Conn college both viable, if the rigor/reputation at your hs is there. But Conn college has one of the best dance programs around, so that sounds like the better fit.

Any sense of math at Conn? It is not a very popular major there.

Don’t know about the math, but know a couple kids who did Physics at Conn Coll and went on to good post college outcomes