Chances at getting into Duke

<p>I'm a senior at a private, college prep school in MN. My weighted GPA is something like 4.24 cumulative, 4.4 senior year) and I take 4 AP's and 4 honors. My ACT is 33 and the writing component is 9. I'm a National Merit Semi Finalist. I'd list my E.C.s but that would be boring, so assume they are good but not outstanding. One E.C. I will mention is something called Experimental Vehicle Team. It is a group of students that designs, builds, and tests green-fueled vehicles. Recently we won a $10,000 grant from Lemelson-MIT InvenTeams and traveled to Boston to showcase an electric motorcycle built from scratch. Outside of school I do a lot of service for my parish and have logged over 100 hours during my senior year.
The catch...I didn't do the essay. Commonapp said it was optional and had a disclaimer saying something like "yes that really means it's optional" so I took that in the most literal sense.</p>

<p>I applied to Northwestern, WashU, Notre Dame, and St. Olaf, but I wrote very good essays for all of those. Duke is the school I'm most nervous about getting into. What do you think my chances are?</p>