<p>Well, the problem is that the 14% overall admit rate isn't really applicable to everyone -- the rate changes for various subgroups (internationals, minorities, people who interviewed, people with perfect SAT scores...). The overall admit rate hides those trends in the data -- different people really do have widely different chances depending on their circumstances. :)</p>
<p>My guess would be that the average applicant -- white male, good SAT scores (2100-2250), several ECs, strong GPA -- would have "average" chances, but vary any of those factors and it becomes difficult to predict.</p>
<p>And MIT students are emphatically not "all competitive nerds".</p>