Chances at top schools (emory, vandy, tulane) with a low GPA?

“9th: 2.84, 10th: 3.45, 11th: 3.43 (my downward trend is due to my commitment to extracurriculars)”

You actually have an upward trend, which you should emphasize. The 2.84 is going to need explaining, taking full responsibility is good, but you’ll have to give some good reasons, maybe freshman year was not an easy transition. Many colleges do look primarily at sophomore and junior years and having a good first semester senior year will help. And there are going to be a lot of kids that also committed to their ECs while maintaining a good GPA. These colleges want students that can do both.

Also, you’ll need to take the math 2 subject test for the colleges you’re considering.