Hi jumpingBean10, With SCU I’d say you’re in. The other two are selective, but you seem to be within the range of people who get accepted. Given your GPA, ACT, and rigor, I could say with confidence that you can get into both your UCs. The UC schools can sometimes be unpredictable, but I think so long as you don’t fatally screw up your essay, you’re good.
How much weight do you think private schools put on 1st semester senior grades. My worry is that I might not get into SCU because my first semester grades were bad: GPA (uw): 3.4. I don’t think UC’s look at 1st semester grades for admission (right?) so I’ll only have to worry about SCU and USC, and I’m pretty sure I can’t get into USC anyway.
UCI: Match (if UC GPA is 4.0+)
UCSB: HIgh Match/Low Reach (Very small engineering department and loves high test scores)
SCU: High Match/Low Reach
UC’s only consider 10-11th grades for their GPA calculation and Senior grades are used to maintain your provisional admission and make sure you passed the a-g course requirements. Your Senior grades may effect your chances at SCU if they asked for a Mid-year transcript.