Chances for Williams, Swarthmore, Bowdoin, Haverford, other LACs

<p>I've tried, but I can't restrain myself any longer. Here's hoping that my college counselor--or anyone else I know--doesn't find this :-) Brutal honesty, please.
(Thank you to anyone who takes the time to read and answer this. I really do appreciate it)</p>

<p>GPA: 3.88 unweighted cumulative (3.95/4.37 junior year)
SAT: 800 CR, 760 W, 710 M (2270; 2160 single sitting, taken twice)
SAT II: 800 Lit, 710 US
AP: 5 Euro, 5 US, 4 Vergil
(will be taking Calc AB, Comparative World next year)</p>

<p>School Type: very small, very competitive, private, no class ranking, limited to 3 APs per year </p>

<p>ECs:
Varsity XC/Track: 9-12, captain as a junior, bunch of awards from my team. (I am in contact with the coaches and I would be able to run at all of the schools, but I am not fast enough to receive a significant push in admissions).
Literary Magazine Layout Editor: 9-12
Newspaper Layout Editor: 11-12
Peer Group: 11 (mentorship-type program for freshman girls)
Feminist Club: 9-12 (this is not the real title of the club. but the name most accurately describes it)</p>

<p>180 candystriping at my local hospital
3 summers lifeguarding at 2 separate pools (30 hours/week)</p>

<p>In theory my recommendations and essay should be the strongest part of my application, but I don't know how well I'll actually deliver on the essays</p>

<p>Chances:
Williams (debating ED; reach?)
Swarthmore (debating ED; high reach?)
Bowdoin (high match?)
Haverford (match? low match?)
Carleton (match?)
UChicago (strong legacy; therefore high match?)
Wellesley (safety?)
Bryn Mawr (safety?)
Plus my state school, hidden for anonymity if that's even possible</p>