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<p>I’ve just posted this in another thread, and I’ll say it again. Such logic is too common on CC, and it simply doesn’t work. You can’t evaluate chances based on % admitted in this case because using such probability assumes that the event is random. The event is not random. So even if the acceptance rate is 60%, it doesn’t mean that your chances sit at 60%. You could have ELC status and have a 10% chance of admission (i.e. no ECs or honors/awards, mediocre essays, etc.). To say that % admitted is indicative of one’s chances is to say that someone who got a perfect score on the SAT has about an 80% chance at Harvard (since it admitted roughly that percentage), making it a safe match - safety. That is far from true. (You can have a perfect score on the SAT, but unless you have a really strong resume – great ECs and honors/awards, excellent essays, etc. which perfect-scorers tend to have – then your chances are not nearly 80% and you probably won’t get in.)</p>
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<p>I assumed it was. The UC GPA is what matters, though. (A difference of .04 isn’t good.)</p>