Chances of getting into UNC?

I’m currently a freshman at UGA (I’m originally from NC so technically in state student) and I’m trying to transfer to UNC fall 2017. My high school stats are pretty strong 5.0 weighted GPA 4.0 unweighted, a lot of APs, 1980 sat, good extra curriculars. My college stats are where I begin to worry. I changed majors last semester (reason for the transfer) and I ended up having to withdraw from chem. In light of my major change, chem was no longer a required course for me and I was taking a couple other pretty much pointless yet difficult courses because of my original major so I only took ten hours last semester. My GPA was a 3.4 so not bad but not stellar either. My extra curriculars are fairly strong though, I’m a poli sci/econ major so I got involved with College Republicans and am a contributing writer to a campus magazine, among other extra curriculars. My essays I feel are fairly strong and I was able to get a letter of recommendation. Also, my dad is an alum and my mom taught there early on in her career. I really want to go to UNC, I’ve been a fan my whole life and I’m really not happy here please be honest, what do you think my chances are?

Since you’re a freshman transfer a 3.4 won’t be TOO much of a red mark (mean for first year transfers is 3.57 iirc), and legacy status + your mom having teaching experience there could help you outperform you stats. The issue with making predictions is that your strong points for college all lie in subjective areas (ECs, essays). Thankfully you’re a freshman, so your HS stellar HS GPA will have a fair amount of weight, and your change of major should encourage the adcomm to give less weight to any poor grades from before the switch (disclaimer: I have no source for this and only believe it intuitively)

Btw what’s your score breakdown for your SAT? Or your CR+M score since that’s what they care about. 75th percentile later year was 1370, I imagine being above this will help a ton.

EDIT: Also did you check connect carolina today? Some decisions came out and some people got them without being notified or getting a credit transfer report.

Update: I got in!