Honestly, I think you have a great shot at getting accepted to both. Given that you are an instate applicant to UVA and have excellent extracurricular activities, I think you are a shoo-in. Wil and Mary is private- however, it seems that by holistic review, you will have a great shot given that you are at or above average for all aspects. Good luck! 
Chance me? http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1839756-chance-me-and-ill-chance-you.html#latest