Well @GoBears2023, you are correct. The overlap between someone making predictions but not in MIT admissions and those of MIT admissions is not going to be 100%. But If allowed to review the usual material posted on this site for “chances” I would probably overlap quite a bit for MIT and a number of other schools. And I could probably also predict which student will get multiple offers from say top 15 schools and which won’t. That’s assuming there are no surprises in things like essays and LoR. Of course bets off if a student used the essay to describe his/her most recent arrest and a GC’s LoR noted that under no circumstances should any school accept the student.
@lostaccount Agreed, but I’ve seen many-a-anomaly, where people only get in some schools than predicted and so on. There is an overlap of type of student over the schools, but that sort of thing IMO is hard to pinpoint, and hence predict.
That being said, there are many who get in all top 15’s some in none, some in 1,2 and so on…
I’s hard to know what the ADCOM think of an app in terms of class fit, hence we cant predict the effectiveness of admittance for a group of schools for an applicant anyways.
There are too many complications to that. Way too many.