Chances on CC are chancy

Parents Forum
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<p>I am not nor have I been a regular CC poster Instead I just read it the last two years for the common humanity experience: finding out that I as a parent should "chill out" about college and that my son would be difficult in his last summer home, etc etc etc. GREAT stuff and a real feeling of community. I finally registered to get a specific answer to a specfic question.</p>

<p>What I always found amazing and amusing though was people asking "what's my chances. " here and on the school forums. I would suggest that CC have the adminstrators (are you listening Roger?) simply ban or delete all those posts. Or at least a prominent disclaimer automatically added: "Opinions on admissions likelihood are simply that - an equally valid alternative may be to check your horoscope"</p>

<p>Full disclosure: It is so tempting to reply to those though, and I am guilty of doing so with nothing more to go on than what my son did and had to get admitted plus his friend's stats. I will just say NO in the future. </p>

<p>I was going to post this as a reply to another thread, but emotions were running so high, I did not want to be misunderstood.. I understand why the regular posters with thousands and thousands posts that shared what they had learned, their dreams, their mistakes would be defensive about being accused of elitism, or false assurances about admissions. </p>

<p>Finally, I am just as happy as happy can be that I dropped my son off at college. It is a nightmare at times with all the hype and drama but TIME to CELEBRATE. So THANKS to all the CC parents for sharing and caring.</p>

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<p>Roger shouldn't ban those posts; why should he displease visitors to his site? I hardly ever read chances posts, except in college-specific forums that I read for other information, and I even more rarely reply to them. But plenty of readers here like them, and over time I think most readers here know well enough to take the replies in such threads with a bushel basket full of salt.</p>

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<p>I agree that anyone asking their chances on this forum needs to understand that the responses are typically going to be answered by parents based on their kids' results or by students based on their own results along with a few responses based on nothing. As long as they understand this though and take the couple of grains of salt along with it, there can be valuable information in the posts. </p>

<p>For example, it may open the eyes of applicants who thought that simply finishing in the top few of the class would be an automatic admit to HYPS.. or other top schools when we know it's not. It's also useful for them to know sometimes that their scores are plenty high enough for some of their target schools (re the people asking if they should retake a 2360 SAT). </p>

<p>Given this value and as long as the chances poster realizes what kind of people are responding, I think the chances threads should continue.</p>

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<p>Well, maybe Roger would like his site to have some credibility. And if the criteria is what people like, then CC should add Pornography. But I would go with your disclaimer: Take with a bushel of salt.</p>

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<p>It should be quite obvious you need to take it with a grain of salt.</p>

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<p>99 times out of 100, if someone offers an opinion about "what are the chances" for a student they've never met and an application they've never seen, the answer is totally worthless.</p>

<p>Chances are so dependent on individual circumstances and the communicated fit with the specific college that trying to give an answer based on test scores is ridiculous.</p>

<p>What's even more amazing is the number of students who post "what are my chances" questions and fail to provide even the most basic information like race/ethnicity, type of high school, class rank, etc.</p>

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<p>I don't mind answering a "chances" thread -- but it is usually to suggest they consider their chances of being able to pay for the school...</p>

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<p>I agree: anyone who posts a "chances" question is simply asking a rather dumb question.... kind of like, "what are my chances of winning the California lottery" (something like 0 if I don't enter, 1 in 15 million if I do). So probably the best way of answering this sort of question for an Ivy is to say, "you have a 9% chance of getting in".... no matter what stats the person posts. Of course, there are always those who think that 1-out-of-11 is a sure thing. ;)</p>

<p>I do think that it is useful when a person posts a list of colleges they are considering, along with stats and the question: "do I need more safeties?" or simply requesting suggestions of additional colleges. That is something more likely to invoke the collective wisdom of the board, and also yield useful advice. It also gives a window on the individual's strategy -- there is absolutely no harm at all in a student applying to reach colleges if the student also has a balanced list with several safety/match colleges -- and it provides better information that can yield good suggestions as to alternatives to some of the reaches as well.</p>

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<p>Hey, it gives us a little hope and it makes us work a little harder. There's nothing wrong with them. Really, what's the big deal?</p>

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<p>Anybody who bases their college application decisions or dreams on anonymous, usually uninformed teens' responses to their Chances posts deserves what they get.</p>

<p>Anyone with good sense would know that's not the way to figure out whether they have chances of admission. Only the extremely lazy or people with weak analytical skills would base their college dreams on a "chances" board that's open to anyone who cares to answer. </p>

<p>If the board were banned, those people would be posting all over CC, which would irritate those of us looking for truly useful information.</p>

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<p>I think y'all are being a little harsh on these kids. Many of them may not have involved parents or GCs who can help them out; they may not, on their own, be able to sort colleges into reach/match/safety. They could pick up US News and figure out the median GPAs and SATs of admitted students; however, we all know that at many schools, having those stats doesn't nearly guarantee you admission. </p>

<p>The best advice that they tend to get is from the individual school's threads. A few years back, my alma mater had a website that listed groups of SAT scores (math & verbal) and class rank, then the percentage of students with those stats that were admitted. A lot of people would think, "Oh, I have a 700v 730m, I'm a shoo-in," so it was very helpful to point to that and say, "Well, statistically, you have a 38% chance of admission, find yourself a safety, because this school ain't it." </p>

<p>Many GCs and parents have out-of-date information. Yes, many of the "chances" threads are ridiculous, but some of those students really want to know. It's especially important when they have no clear first choice but are considering applying ED; should they "waste" the ED on the school that is out of their reach? </p>

<p>Current students can also tell them what is valued by the school; my alma mater, for example, nearly requires extensive extracurricular involvement. A student whose one EC is a stint on the yearbook should probably be made aware of that and know that, no matter what the stats, he should not count on an acceptance. </p>

<p>Maybe I see this differently because my alma mater is routinely trashed as being "the Ivy safety school," when, in reality, it is a safety for no one. A lot of kids think that a 1300 SAT with top 15% of high school class is enough to get in the door, when most kids with those stats don't get in. While some do get in, and many go, those kids are usually the 30% of the school for whom English is not a first language. In fact, no one has a "good" chance (i.e. match or match/safety) of getting in without 750 on both SATs and top 5% of public school. If students are only hearing information that is 10 years out of date from parents or a GC, I have no idea how they would know this. You would look at the stats of the school and think, "Okay, around 25% of the student body has my stats," and not understand that those kids are all born in foreign countries or are from very underrepresented areas of the country.</p>

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<p>While in theory the OP's point is valid, in practice I see three types of responses here to the "what are my chances" questions: (1) cautionary, "don't count your chickens" admonitions which seem realistic but generally very conservative to me, (2) assuring kids with great profiles that they DO indeed have a fighting chance somewhere and telling them not to be intimidated by stuff they read about Intel finalists, and (3) practical tidbits like ariesathena's example, which are probably, like most folklore, less than 100% but more than 50% accurate. There is absolutely nothing wrong with any of those. </p>

<p>Honestly, I can't remember seeing a serious response here that I thought could lead a kid into making a mistake. Instead, I see two common mistakes being corrected. The first is thinking that if my stats match well with the school's common data set, I'm in. The second is thinking that I don't have a chance if I haven't discovered a cure for cancer. Correcting those is good.</p>

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<p>Replies #4 and #7 are priceless -- no pun intended, weenie. The "Chances" forum as pornography: I love it.</p>

<p>When I first read those, many moons ago (in fact I dwelt mostly there), they put me into a deep depression. Then eventually I realized (light bulb) that they were being asked & responded to mostly by students, and that they were as psychologically driven as information-driven. I calmed down.</p>

<p>I found it interesting, though, that invariably -- with the exception of the particularly well informed repliers -- the vast majority of replies were in the arena of "forget those scores." (Never mind that the person had practically qualified for the Olympics.) It has been turning out over the last couple of years minimum, that fabulous e.c.'s are trumping scores, in general. So it's important to Consider the Source.</p>

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<p>The Collegedata website has recently added a feature showing the stats on the kids accepted/denied/waitlisted/applied to particular colleges (I'm pretty sure this information was entered by the kids themselves though, because some of the answers are sarcastic and a little misleading). But I found it pretty helpful when we compare DD's stats with others who were accepted/denied at the schools she will be applying to.</p>

<p>Of course this is no foolproof method, because as always there are kids with great stats who are denied at schools that you wouldn't necessarily think would deny them. I know there are lots of other factors that go into the decision making process, but I still found this information helpful.</p>

<p>And yes, my grain of salt is right here...</p>

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<p>I find that it's a good rule of thumb to leave any thread with "chances" in the title unopened.</p>

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<p>I agree with Dean J.</p>

<p>Haven't read a chances thread in several years.</p>

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<p>I've been involved in these parents forums or years. I am only a very occassional poster on CC. I was much more active on the old PR board, but backed way off once DD made her college choice.</p>

<p>I, too, think the "chances" discussions are of little value. They are mostly harmless unless one gives them credibilty. College admissions are just too much of a crapshoot for advice on the liklihood of acceptance to be meaningful.</p>

<p>That's not to say there isn't a whole lot of valuable advice available on this board. By sharing our personal experiences we expand our knowledge way beyond what any one of can acquire individually.</p>

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<p>Present thread the exception that proves the rule ? ;)
Thanks again Dean J for riding to my rescue with a pithy comment. i never consider one of my threads complete until you weigh in.</p>

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<p>That's my philosophy!</p>

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<p>Oh, come on, this thread has "chances" in the title, and you all opened it. ;)</p>