Chances... Please help!

<p>I am a white, upper middle class, male junior who attends a competitive private school in Alabama. Please be brutally honest, false encouragement will only get my hopes up...</p>

<p>Standardized Test Scores:
SAT I: (with best scores from two sittings)
Reading: 700
Math: 710
Writing: 800 (12 essay)
M+V: 1410
M+V+W: 2210</p>

<p>I'll take it again if I make National Merit Semi-Finalist, since it's required.</p>

<p>ACT Composite: 32 (I'll probably retake because I only got a 26 in the science).</p>

<p>SAT IIs: Haven't taken any yet... But I will take three and hopefully get 700+ on all of them.</p>

<p>Rank: (My school doesn't rank, which is probably for the best. Although I am #2, there are only 40 people in my tiny class).</p>

<p>GPA: It's always been well above 4.0. (I can't find my report cards right now so I can't tell you what they are exactly).</p>

<p>By the time I graduate as a senior, I'll have taken 7 AP courses (it's all my school offers), but I only have the exam results from one of them (AP US History, got a 4). Other APs include European History, Biology, Calculus AB, Chemistry, English, and Government.</p>

<p>Extracurriculars (this might be the area that will kill me)
Basketball: 9
Varsity Tennis: 11-12
Spanish Club: 9-11
Spanish Honor Society: 10-11
National Honor Society: 11-12 (unless I get kicked out senior year, which I don't expect to happen)
125+ hours community service (although, granted, 100 hours are required to graduate from my high school).</p>

<p>Awards: (Given to highest GPA in the class)
A Honor roll: 9-11, hopefully 12 as well
Spanish Award: 9-11
Physics Award: 11
Religion Award: 10 (I know, I know...but don't laugh, it's required)
Computer Applications Award: 9</p>

<p>I'm at least a commended scholar, but I have a chance of being a semi-finalist as long as the cutoff doesn't increase more than one point from last year (got a 213 on the PSAT this year, last year's cutoff was 212).</p>

<p>Hook:
Not a big one, but I did attend Alabama Boys State and was elected to House of Representatives (which, granted, is not a particularly high position, but I was too shy to run for anything big).</p>

<p>List of colleges that I'm interested in: (I realize most of these will be reaches)
Cornell
Emory
Vanderbilt
UNC at Chapel Hill (This is the one I really want to get into)
NYU
Stanford
Tulane
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
Fordham
Clemson
Auburn (Probably my only safety school on the list).</p>

<p>So what do you think? I'd rather you all be honest than nice. And one more thing, could you be a little specific? Certain terms, like "reach", can be a little ambiguous. If you think I have no chance at all, say "huge reach." If you think I have some chance but not a huge one, say "slight reach" or something like that.</p>

<p>UNC may be a reach since you are OOS. Cornell is a slight reach, but being from Alabama may help you. Stanford is huge reach without a hook. The rest are matches. Michigan may also be a bit of a reach due to residency but others probably could tell you.</p>

<p>jlauer, why will you take the SAT again if you make NMSF? I know they will request your SAT scores, to make sure the PSAt wasn't a fluke, but at 1400+ and 2200+, I would think that yours are fine.</p>

<p>I dont chance for the most selective schools because they are so fickle. But here are my thoughts on the others:</p>

<p>Vanderbilt: slight reach
UNC: match/slight reach (OOS)
NYU: match
Tulane: match
Michigan: slight reach (oos)
Fordham: safety
Clemson: safety
Auburn: safety</p>

<p>Thanks for the feedback everyone!</p>

<p>Entomom, my mom told me that everyone who qualifies for Semi-Finalist has to take the SAT again on a certain date to make it to Finalist. If my mom is right, then I guess they don't allow you to submit previous SAT scores. I don't know if she's right. If she isn't, then I probably won't take the SAT again....</p>

<p>michigan-safety</p>

<p>Michigan isnt a Safety for him, but it isnt a huge reach. I'd say you have a GREAT chance at UNC and Vandy.</p>

<p>jlauer,
I just reread the NMSP instructions for Semifinalists and I can definitely see where your mom though that you have to take the SAT again to go from semifinalist to finalist, their wording in the #7 requirement is quite misleading. Reading the further details on page 2 of that document, they specify the SAT test dates between which you have to send in scores for. Note that the information in this document is for last year's semifinalists, and the qualifying test dates are from Oct 2003 through Dec 2005. I'm not sure how they're going to deal with the old SAT for this year's rising seniors, but any score from the new SAT (starting March 2005) should be acceptable.</p>

<p>Hope this helps. p.s. I'm not very good at chances, but I'd think you'd have a good shot at Michigan as long as you applied early, at least by the end of September; you might want to post on the UM board with Alexandre for a more educated prediction. Good luck!</p>

<p>Cornell
Emory
Vanderbilt
UNC at Chapel Hill (This is the one I really want to get into)
NYU
Stanford</p>

<p>^^^ The above schools are the only question marks, the other ones you shouldn't worry about too much. Chapel Hill and Stanford will probably be the biggest reaches for you, but regardless you'll get into a few of those schools.</p>