<p>Thats not true at all - very few people have a 12-13% chance - that would assume that most people have identical stats when even slight variations can cause 'chances' to increase. I'll post more later</p>
<p>Most people do indeed fall into this range. Even if they did deviate, they would not deviate much. However much people think, very few people have chances like 30% or 3%.</p>
<p>quizquick, you obviously don't know a whole lot about statistical distributions. An average 12-13% chance doesn't mean most people have that chance - it depends on the shape of the distribution. Now, it's a different matter whether you and I can tell which ones have a higher chance vs a lower chance.</p>
<p>Forgot about this 'loose thread' (no pun intended OMG i'm soooo funny)</p>
<p>Yeah, as I was saying Quiz Quick - The average acceptance rate is just that - an average. There are very few -well, none to be precise- people that a college would look at and go "if I roll a 5 he's in!" - its not a game of random chance at all. It includes a lot of people with a 0% chance of getting in and a few people with a 100% chance of getting in - which averages out to a 12% acceptance rate. The thing that really matters is what gets you into that '100%' chance rate - which are all things within your control. When you ask for your specific chances you are asking for just that - your chances of YOU and only YOU being in that 100% chance group - which higher test scores, URM status etc. can all add towards. So what I am saying is someone with horrible stats and someone with great stats + ECs etc would not both have a 12% chance - the person with the great stats would be closer to having that 100% chance and that person with the bad stats would be closer to that 0% chance. So basically all admissions rates tell you is how much you have to do to get into that '100%' category - the lower the more you have to do (assuming all applicants to relative schools are directly comparable) - only you control your true 'chance' of admission. Admissions is not a game of chance but a game of cumulative stats leading to an ultimate decision. If everything you do and are (e.g. stats, specific hooks, essays, URM status) is assigned a certain value every year and if their cumulative effect is greater than a set number then you'll get in, if not then you won't. The admissions percentage only changes that set number - if you get what I mean...</p>
<p>I know none of this makes any sense the way I've written it but cut me some slack because its 2 in the morning in England and I'm not even up to A-level math level yet and I'm pretty much just making stuff up - I haven't learned this crap and so I'm going to sleep. Peace out :)</p>