Chances that SI for Class of 2019 goes down?

Well, its starting where the PSAT scores are coming out…ugg. My child got 1 point less than the SI that qualified for NMSF last year in our state. Last year it rose from the previous year (first year out of 228). Does anyone know if some go down and some go up year to year. Even with the past years when I think it was out of 240? We are not counting on it at all…but the waiting begins.