chances?

Testing: SAT 2250 SAT IIs 710 Math 2 750 Bio

APs: US History (5) US Gov (5) Comparative Politics (3) Bio (4) Lang (5)

Senior year: Modern Lit, Creative Writing, English, AP Chem, AP Spanish, Calculus (non AP), Politics and Policy

Awards: AP Scholar with Distinction, various top speaker awards for debate, Outstanding Delegate (HMC), Future Global Leader Award (region specific), debate state champ for 2 years in middle school (not sure if relevant), horseback riding competition awards, riflery competition awards

ECs: Debate (4 years, 2 as captain), Harvard Model Congress (3 years), Mock Trial (2 years, captain and founder), Peer Leadership Program (2 years), school newspaper writer (4 years), Community Service Club (VP, 3 years), Spanish translator and tutor for local women and family crisis shelter, Varsity basketball manager (3 years)

Essay: 8/10

Recs: 6/10, 7/10, 9/10

Your GPA? What do you mean by essay 8/10? Recs 6,7,9? All your recs should be 9 or 10 out of 10 or you should find some other references.

my GPA is a 3.8 at a small competitive private school

Get some better recs.