Choosing majors with the job market in mind

Parents Forum
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<p>What resources are useful for undergrads/HS students in choosing a program of study path who want to end up with a marketable degree at the end of 4 years? I think I have run across job projections over the next 5 years before but I don't recall where or even how valid those are (especially if written during the notorious 90's bubble when it seemed like everyone could get hired). </p>

<p>Anyone know what the "hot" business degrees, Liberal arts degrees, engineering degrees or other science is thought to be?</p>

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<p>I think one thing that is important to think about in the 21st century is whether or not a profession is cyclical - something not subject to economic downturns is a good idea.</p>

<p>In that vein, at least one area that will continue to expand is Health care - whereas malpractice insurance and cost controls by ins. companies are gouging MDs, some professions are still advancing, e.g. nursing - geriatric care, radiological, psychiatric, etc. - I know some nurses who choose to be contract, relocate all over the US for high rates, have plenty of $, get respect (i.e., MDs don't kick them around any more - too few, too precious), good life. </p>

<p>Another health care profession on the rise for $ and quality of life is veterinary medicine - great patients (!), no malpractice to speak of (unless you care for Triple Crown winners), spending going up, up, up on pets - own business, king/queen of the castle, rake in profits from drugs, etc.</p>

<p>Engineering - nanotechnology and biotechnology would be my bets.</p>

<p>Liberal Arts - Cognitive Science, Bioethics - up and coming.</p>

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<p>When i was in HS, one of the counselors was advising the kids that were NOT going off to a four-year college, but who wanted vocational education for a sure career. She said to them that computers were going to be the wave of the future and advised them that computers could not operate without punched cards, so she said: "Learn to be a keypunch operator to have a job for life!"</p>

<p>The modern version of that has been to learn programming, but you can see how easily that has been outsourced overseas. So much for computers.</p>

<p>Think of hands-on careers (health care is the best for this). Veterinary medicine is not really a panacea, in my opinion. My wife works in this field. It is very competitive to get into a good vet school, it is very difficult starting (or buying) a business, and you always have to have more staff than you can comfortably afford. But after a while, you can make a very decent living and - if you can specialize - you'll really be well off.</p>

<p>But to be a success at anything, you'll have to have (or develop) some passion for it. I can't imagine anyone choosing something like veterinary care without a love for animals or engineering without specific skills in math and science.</p>

<p>Business is probably a good overall bet. From there, you can go into the business aspects of many fields.</p>

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<p>Anything healthcare where you are interacting with the patient is a gold mine for the next 25+ years. Same thing with being a pharmacist. The worst field to get into right now is message board moderator.</p>

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<p>Working with the elderly.</p>

<p>This is a very important argument. Do you choose a college and major based upon the projected career or do you choose a college and major to develop understanding and cognative discipline. I vote for the later.</p>

<p>If a person can research write, and speak well they will probably find a job. I suspect the legal system will be around for awhile and joev is right about medicine......The real skill acquired in any good undergraduate education is how to learn efficiently.</p>

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<p>I would never recommend choosing an undergrad major based on a pundit's recommendation of what will be hot a few years down the road. Even "megatrend" type predictions, like the growing long-term shortage of information technology workers (c. 1999) have a way of going awry.</p>

<p>While I wouldn't be completely oblivioius to employment prospects, I'd focus on two other important factors:
1) A solid undergrad major that will produce a grad who has strong communications skills and critical thinking ability; I like the idea of some technical rigor, too, but that may not be for everyone.
2) An undergrad major related to the passion and aptitude of the student. Whatever may be happening at the macro level, a grad with outstanding skills and motivation will almost certainly succeed, and will derive emotional satisfaction in addition to financial rewards from his/her work. (Obviously, careers like acting present some special challenges.)</p>

<p>I'm familiar with the information technology area, and the really successful people tend to have computers "in their blood". The people who got into IT because it offered good career prospects rarely exhibit much brilliance or insight; they are employable when demand is high, but are often the first to go when there's a cutback. That's a wild generalization, of course, but "do what you enjoy and are good at" is never bad advice.</p>

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<p>I dunno, there's lots of demand... the pay is lousy, though. ;)</p>

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<p>Roger, I can believe everything you just said. Seriously, any health oriented career such as medicine, dental, occupational therapy, physical therapy etc. will do well with our aging population. I was reading an article that noted that accounting is also a big "up and coming" field for the 21st century especially for the new accounting area of "forensic accounting." Not many schools have this in place yet,but it is becoming a very in demand field, especially with the advent of Enron. Forensic accountants are essentially fraud auditors,but they are also used in divorce cases and other legal cases.</p>

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<p>article in NY times today:</p>

<p>College Degree Still Pays, but It's Leveling Off
By LOUIS UCHITELLE </p>

<p>Published: January 13, 2005</p>

<p>Ever so gradually, the big payoff in wages from a college education is losing </p>

<p>its steam, which calls into question the emphasis that the White House, under </p>

<p>both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, has placed on a bachelor's degree as a </p>

<p>sure-fire avenue to constantly rising incomes. </p>

<p>Men and women with four years of college earn nearly 45 percent more on average </p>

<p>than those with only a high school diploma, according to the Bureau of Labor </p>

<p>Statistics. The spread is as high as it has ever been, but it has been stuck in </p>

<p>the 45 percent range since the late 1990's, and through the 1990's it rose much </p>

<p>more slowly than in the 1980's. </p>

<p>Although the payoff from a college education is leveling off, income inequality </p>

<p>continues to grow. That suggested to some economists at the annual meeting last </p>

<p>weekend of the American Economic Association that employers are making wage </p>

<p>decisions on criteria that have little to do with the supply of and demand for </p>

<p>educated workers.</p>

<p>The leveling off of the wage premium for a four-year college degree has lasted </p>

<p>long enough to suggest that it is not just a pause in an otherwise constantly </p>

<p>rising payoff for those with bachelor's degrees, but another significant shift </p>

<p>in labor market dynamics. The payoff for a college education fell in the 1970's </p>

<p>only to reverse course, rising sharply in the 1980's and then leveling off in </p>

<p>the 1990's, even showing signs of beginning to fall in the current decade.</p>

<p>"We always knew that the return in wages to a college education fluctuates, but </p>

<p>we forgot," said Cecilia E. Rouse, a Princeton University labor economist, "and </p>

<p>now we are being forced to remember." </p>

<p>The 1980's experience gave birth to the skills-mismatch thesis - the view that </p>

<p>millions of workers lacked the college training required for the increasingly </p>

<p>high-tech jobs that the new economy generated. Out of that thinking came </p>

<p>stepped-up federal spending on college scholarships, tuition tax credits and </p>

<p>the like. That put the burden on individuals to get the necessary education, </p>

<p>with the government playing a supporting role as financier. </p>

<p>The portion of the population with bachelor's degrees today is about 30 </p>

<p>percent, not much above where it was in the 1980's. That limited supply of </p>

<p>baccalaureates would suggest strong demand for them and a continual increase in </p>

<p>the spread between what college graduates earn and what the much more numerous </p>

<p>high school graduates earn. </p>

<p>The dynamics, however, do not work that way. For one thing, the wage spread </p>

<p>between high school and college graduates is determined by what happens to each </p>

<p>side of the equation. During the 1980's, high-school-educated blue-collar </p>

<p>workers lost well-paying jobs by the hundreds of thousands as domestic </p>

<p>manufacturers increasingly lost out to foreign competitors. As their incomes </p>

<p>fell, the spread widened rapidly. </p>

<p>The wages of the high school educated did not begin to increase again until the </p>

<p>late 1990's, when tight labor markets increased the demand for their services. </p>

<p>Now, the incomes of the high school educated are rising almost as quickly as </p>

<p>the incomes of the college educated, according to an analysis of wage data by </p>

<p>the Economic Policy Institute. That brings into question how much value a </p>

<p>college education adds.</p>

<p>"The obsession with education has become a mantra to avoid tough political </p>

<p>choices," said Harley Shaiken, a labor economist at the University of </p>

<p>California, Berkeley. While education is essential, Mr. Shaiken and other </p>

<p>economists argue, it is not enough. They would put more of the burden on </p>

<p>government to close the wage gap, through such additional steps as raising the </p>

<p>minimum wage and strengthening the laws governing collective bargaining. </p>

<p>That argument may undervalue the advances that are being made in high school </p>

<p>education, says Richard Murnane, a specialist in the economics of education at </p>

<p>the Graduate School of Education at Harvard. He notes that many states now </p>

<p>require high school seniors to pass "exit exams" to get their diplomas. </p>

<p>College Degree Still Pays, but It's Leveling Off </p>

<p>Published: January 13, 2005</p>

<p>(Page 2 of 2)</p>

<p>Because these exams require considerable proficiency in reading and </p>

<p>mathematics, "employers are beginning to see that high school graduates have </p>

<p>more skills than they used to have," Mr. Murnane said. If college graduates ask </p>

<p>for too much money, he said, employers may hire these high school graduates </p>

<p>instead. </p>

<p>Another dynamic also undermines the value of a college degree, says David H. </p>

<p>Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. While the </p>

<p>college premium appears to be leveling off, the spread between the incomes of </p>

<p>the highest-earning Americans and those in the middle expanded almost as fast </p>

<p>in the 1990's as it did in the 1980's. </p>

<p>"If I may speak somewhat loosely, there continues to be rising demand for </p>

<p>people who have very strong cognitive, managerial and communications skills," </p>

<p>Mr. Autor said. "The vast middle, whether they are college educated or not, are </p>

<p>not in that upper category of cognitive elite. The elite is college educated, </p>

<p>but not all the college educated are those people."</p>

<p>The leveling off of the college premium came up in various panel presentations </p>

<p>at the American Economic Association meeting in Philadelphia and in interviews </p>

<p>with economists. One panel explored what Richard B. Freeman, a Harvard labor </p>

<p>economist, described as the seemingly inexhaustible supply of immigrants with </p>

<p>advanced college degrees who hold or seek jobs in America, depressing the </p>

<p>demand for and the wages of all well-educated job seekers, immigrants and </p>

<p>native Americans alike.</p>

<p>Another study, presented by Robert G. Valletta, an economist at the Federal </p>

<p>Reserve Bank of San Francisco, found that wage increases associated with </p>

<p>computer use at work were "relatively constant across educational categories" </p>

<p>from 1984 through 2003, favoring the college educated only from 1997 to 2001, </p>

<p>the era of the dot-com boom. A third study, presented by Ms. Rouse and Lisa </p>

<p>Barrow of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, found that the payoff from </p>

<p>schooling was roughly the same across ethnic and racial groups - rising in </p>

<p>tandem in the 1980's and tending to level off in the 1990's. </p>

<p>Their study, they said, knocked down the view, held by some economists, that </p>

<p>the return to education was higher "in individuals who come from more </p>

<p>advantaged families." The study also added to the documentation that the income </p>

<p>return for schooling rose in the 1980's, adding roughly 10 percent to a </p>

<p>worker's wage in 1990 for each year of education, up from 7 percent in 1980. </p>

<p>Since 1990, however, the added value has remained at 10 percent.</p>

<p>That puts Mr. Freeman of Harvard on the spot. He first made his name as a labor </p>

<p>economist with the publication in 1976 of a book entitled "The Overeducated </p>

<p>American," which argued that the college wage premium, which was then falling, </p>

<p>would continue to fall. His reasoning was that the demand for college-educated </p>

<p>workers was being suppressed by the large number of educated baby boomers </p>

<p>taking jobs, while the growth in exports was sustaining the demand for </p>

<p>high-school-educated factory workers. All too soon, Mr. Freeman turned out to </p>

<p>be dead wrong. </p>

<p>"The only reason the payoff for a college degree went up in the 1980's was that </p>

<p>there was a wonderful relative shift in the demand for educated workers," he </p>

<p>said. "But there is no rule of law that says demand for educated labor will </p>

<p>always rise faster than the supply. It could go the other way." </p>

<p>NY Times</p>

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<p>That is a fascinating article just posted. The supply/demand issue does make you think about the high costs incurred for undergrad and grad degrees. Arguments have been bandied that the science/comp degrees and technical education of the H1Bs coming from the US is considered in many cases to be more rigorous that the US (not necessarily as broad, just more in depth in certain competitive areas). </p>

<p>I understand what some of the posters are saying about the role of aptitude or passion in choosing majors. However, there is something to be said for keeping one's eye on the market place. My ex. was seeking an MS in Biology at Brown U. but after the second year kept noting all the adds appearing in the paper for people with computer knowlege (back in the late 70's and early 80's.). He took a risk and changed his major to computer science and rode the crest of the wave. He never got his degree, but after taking a few classes in CS with an eye to the want ads, was quickly scouted and hired by an out of state company. </p>

<p>I have a son with all the natural science aptitudes and it is a sure bet that he will gravitate that way. However, I have 2 more kids whose brains work differently. I would say they are more liberal arts material, but wouldn't rule out business entirely.
However, I don't feel qualified to advise them beyond trying for a broad based education . That said, a broadbase hasn't served <em>me</em> well. I have 9 years of college (Fine Arts 2/Bus 2/Polysci 4 and Pub Pol 1(masters) with a 4.0 GPA. and I'm no slacker. All that learning how to think and write, organize information, research and present hasn't done me any good in the job market to date, I assumed that I would have a broad base of employment opportunities, even just foot in the door types of jobs. About the only openings I get responses from are administrative assistant positions. So, I do think that it makes a difference these days what degree program you major in--especially if you had to get student loans. So, ideally, yes--follow your inclinations, but reality can bite.</p>

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<p><strong>So, I do think that it makes a difference these days what degree program you major in--especially if you had to get student loans. So, ideally, yes--follow your inclinations, but reality can bite.</strong></p>

<p>I agree that 'reality can bite' regarding the financial futures of students - especially with the debt factor - but I feel strongly that students also need to pursue education that will also make them happy. I work in the health care field and cannot imagine working in another field - tho I didn't start there initially - it took me a while to be able to. We have always supported out kids to pursue education/careers that will make them happy - the financial piece may or may not be lucrative - but a good example is my son - he pursued an education that has now allowed him to be doing what he loves most - coaching at a college level - and he will never be wealthy - he knows this - but highest on his agenda is being happy with what he is doing - and he really is. </p>

<p>Our daughter initially started to pursue her education in a health related field - but has now decided that will not be her happiness and changed direction completely - again - will never reap a big financial benefit - but she will love what she does and will be very good at it also - the other benefits of following your heart and dreams. Neither of them can imagine themselves doing something that they hate - no matter the $$ gain from it - to them it is not worth doing under those circumstances.</p>

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<p>My sister in law has a PH.d in managed health care(I am not 100% sure of the official name of her degree) from USC. She has had numerous jobs and moved up very quickly to a high salary. She loves her work and is in high demand. Whereas her husband who has a degree in graphic arts finds his work enjoyable but a highly unstable job market.
I think it is great to support your children in getting an education in a field that they love regardless of job prospects. I would do the same but on the other hand I have seem firsthand how hard it becomes on relationships as people get older and have a family of their own to support. I know quite a few women who had to go back to work before they felt ready because they needed the income as their spouses pursued dream jobs that did not pay the bills. I realize that that might be consider sexist but I think it is a reality.</p>

<p>Also think about how many people our age who are working in jobs they don't enjoy because they have children to feed and colleges to pay for.</p>

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<p>"""Also think about how many people our age who are working in jobs they don't enjoy because they have children to feed and colleges to pay for."""</p>

<p>My son went to a pretty prestigous college undergrad and for grad school - the world is his oyster - but.......he chooses to do what he does because he has such a passion for it - and my daughter will find her way somehow - they both realize what the don't want and tend to pursue ways to achieve what they do want.</p>

<p>I guess I have to just say that life is way tooo short to be doing what does not make you happy - we are by no means considered wealthy - we have both had to work for most of our marriage - and still do - yes the bills still need to be paid and the college tuition needs to be on time - but at least we are all doing something that we enjoy to achieve those goals - we all could have done it differently - and been miserable - not worth it to do that. I laugh when i jokeingly say - I will be working until I am 102 - and half-heartedly mean it - but it is doable because I enjoy what I do.</p>

<p>I have many acquantences who went the other route - high level of education - power jobs - lots of $$$ and who are not happy - they gave up something to achieve those things and now are not able to redeem them selves - and they also pay the bills and college tuition. It makes me sad to consider that these same people may have looked down at how we have done it - beneath them so to speak - and in the end they are in a similar position with their own college kids - so by us encouraging our kids to do whatever makes them happy in life is what we consider successful choices.</p>

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<p>I do not think it is a good idea to choose a major based on the job prospects four years down the road. Many jobs are very cyclical in nature due to the economy or because of student preferences. Let me explain the later. The off-shoring of high tech jobs has had a significant impact on enrollment in computer science programs. Industry experts are predicting a shortage of entry level graduates in a few years.</p>

<p>Finally, there will always be a good job for well prepared students. It may take a little more work and a little more time but eventually they will find that job. </p>

<p>The important thing is to pursue something that interest you and will be personally fulfilling. I heard an expert on CNN state that one reason that lawyers are paid so much is because it is the only way to attract people into the profession. I'm not sure I buy that arguement but it is provocative.</p>

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<p>There are strong arguments against picking college majors based on the current or anticipated job market including previous posts which identified student happiness, cyclical job trends etc. Another argument is that not only does the work environment change over the course of our working lives, we change as people over that same period of time. A work passion in our 20's can fizzle in our 30's. I can't count the number of middle aged engineers I have spoken with that have either changed their career paths entirely or wish they could. It seems to me that as the trend of multiple job changes over the lifespan continue, broad based undergraduate preparation leading to communication, analytical and quantative excellence is the only sensible path.</p>