Class of 2007 a large student body

Parents Forum
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<p>I have a question. My daughter is a sophmore at a large competitve high school. Based on her Freshman year, she had a weighted GPA of 4.13 out of 5.0 and was ranked 112 out a class of around 900 students. She is considering skipping her junior year and will still graduate with 4 years of math, 4 years of history, 3 years of a foreign language and 3 years of science. </p>

<p>We have moved to several states in the US and noticed that her graduating class, the class of 2007 has always been one of the largest. Does anyone know if this is the case nationally. Will graduating a year earlier give her an advantage in college admissions.</p>

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<p>Our public suburban high school (1400 students) has 400 in classes of 2007 and 2008, and 300 in classes of 2005 and 2006. Posters many months ago noted several news articles stating that the population of college applicants will continue to rise until peaking about 2010-2012.</p>

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<p>I have heard that admissions will be increasingly worse until the year 2013. You've heard of the Yale slaughter... it'll be much, much worse in the future.</p>

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<p>Wow. Thanks for your help.</p>

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<p>From studies that I read, the "baby boomlet" in the U.S. peaked with births in 1990. Those kids, including my D, are freshmen in high school now.</p>

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<p><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-01-01-college-boombers-usat_x.htm%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-01-01-college-boombers-usat_x.htm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>From USA Today (Jan. 1, 2003)</p>

<p>New baby boom swamps colleges</p>

<p>Excerpts from it (though I think the last line is dumb):</p>

<p>...As if the economy didn't paint a bad enough picture, the Millennial generation's sheer girth means students will find more competition for precious slots, especially at the nation's top schools.</p>

<p>Across the country, applications continue to rise faster than openings. In Texas, between the boomlet and an effort to get more kids into college, the state expects to add a half million college students by 2015.</p>

<p>At UT-Austin, where anyone graduating from a Texas high school in the top 10% of his or her class is guaranteed admission, applications are up 30% over last year, according to Bruce Walker, director of admissions.</p>

<p>Given the surge and the school's move to downsize, being accepted at UT-Austin is getting harder. Five years ago, students in the top half of their class generally made the cut, but now, Walker says, "if you're not in the top quarter of your class, you have almost no chance of getting in here."</p>

<p>Standards are rising elsewhere. After losing enrollment in the early '90s, Temple University in Philadelphia campaigned to expand its market beyond the city core. It worked, thanks in part to smart marketing and more available students, and the school this year has its largest freshman class ever. Now, 15% of freshmen have SAT scores over 1100; five years ago, 10% did.</p>

<p>As top schools pick students more carefully, more kids will find themselves in second-tier schools and community colleges.</p>

<p>In Tennessee, for example, the flagship Knoxville campus is repositioning itself as "the public university of choice for the best and brightest students," says John Shumaker, the university president. The state, he says, "will rely on the community college system to provide the point of open access for greater numbers of students who aren't prepared to do the work at the research university."</p>

<p>The middle class "will confront more diminished choice," Nassirian says. "The system can accommodate you. You won't have much choice, but at least your kid is going to get a college education — and by the way, that's going to be at a community college."</p>

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<p>I don't remember where, but I know I read that the class of 2007 will be the largest ever, larger than past and future classes. I remembered this because I too have a 2007 student. I'm not looking forward to the college process with him.</p>

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<p>At my school, the class of 2008 is the largest (containing just slightly over 1000 people). If what you say is true about the class of 2007 being the largest class to apply to colleges, then that means that I'm going to have it even harder. I'm graduating a year early, so I will be with the class of '07.</p>

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<p>Back to the original question, unless you have an agreement with a college (this usually happens in state colleges, in Florida for instance), there is no advantage to graduating early, and you can gain extra classes/boost your rank if you stay on your senior year.</p>

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<p>I think they call it the 'boomlet'. I don't know why, all the baby boomers are old now. Same with my kids, each class getting larger. Maybe many are optioning out of private schools to save for colleges.</p>

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<p>BHG, it <em>was</em> a small baby boom to those of us from the original boom -- most of us just delayed having children until our 30s (unlike most of our parents' generation) so yeah, we are older now, and our kids are just graduating from high school. I've got one in the class of '05 and one in '07, so we'll be swimming with the sharks in <em>another</em> two years, too.</p>

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<p>It's not so bad if you use this site to be well prepared. Two in college at the same time is rough financially.</p>

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<p>And man alive, the <em>SECOND</em> I mail in the last payment for that second kids' final college bill, BLAMMO! I head to the office to arrange my retirement date. Whew!</p>

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<p>My generation is just downright huge. While it's not the same type of baby boom as the baby boomers generation - it is very close in size. The reason for this is - the WW2 Generation was responsible for the baby boom generation - which resulted in many children per family. My dad has 4 brothers and sisters and my mom has 3 brothers and sisters. The problem with Generation Y is that people from the Baby Boomers Generation, Generation X, and even Generation Y were having children during Generation Y :) The amount of people is similar - but they are spread out over many more families. (On a different note - because the original boomers had so many children, their 'quality of living' was lesser than ours, as money was more scarce and there were more people per family to provide for. Today, the average family size is much less - so there is more money to go around. This is leading to more children being able to go to school, and being able to have more things. Which is why Generation Y is known as the consumers generation.) Because of this "surge" in child birth, more and more children are "coming of age" every day. This is why every graduating class is getting larger and larger ever year. I would expect this to continue for quite a few years, as the rest of Generation Y comes of age. </p>

<p>Just my little take on the matter...</p>

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<p><a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/res/hel/hel.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/res/hel/hel.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>also the census 2000 site has a lot of interesting info if you don't mind digging a little...the briefs and special reports are good...</p>

<p><a href="http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

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<p>If there are two million kids in your cohort, the top 10% is 200,000 kids, way more than enough to fill all the top schools! That means there is a spillover, and former "safety" schools now become much harder to get into. There are second-tier schools that now have acceptance rates similar to what the Ivies had just before the boomlet. I read somewhere that Stanford's acceptance rate used to be 70%!</p>

<p>So some schools that may have been sneered at before are now filled with high achievers who have been bumped out of the top schools.</p>

<p>I personally think this is a good thing. A huge part of the college experience at Ivies etc. has always been the quality of the classmates you interact with. With the fountain overflowing, lower levels are being filled with better students, increasing the number of schools at which you can get a really good education, not just from faculty but from association with your peers.</p>

<p>Of course the downside to all this is the question, "Where do the students at the bottom go?" A recent national article even showed many top students going to community colleges in order to save money and transfer later, to the detriment of the CCs usual customers.....</p>

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<p>I like to think of it as a rising tide which has the potential to lift all the boats. I agree with Nedad that a major component to the quality of most people's college education is the academic ability of their classmates. Under the college application/acceptance/selection process that is the centerpiece of this forum, the great majority of students will end up in college with students of similar academic abilities, just like before. It's just that a particular academic cohort who would have attended, say, a 30th - 50th ranked school 10 years ago will be going to a 2nd (or 3rd) tier school today. And in my opinion it doesn't really matter all that much. I strongly suspect that the overall academic rigor of most schools rises to meet the ability of the students - and the "middle level" schools that put some effort into attracting the higher achieving students will get them. Which means that the academic abilities of the classmates at those schools will mirror the academic ability of the students in the schools which were ranked higher in decades past.</p>

<p>Maybe it's time to "recenter" the college rankings?</p>

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<p>I wouldn't focus on numbers as much as I would whether it will hurt her chances at top colleges to just have three years of high school. My daughter had considered this so we sought the advice of some good college counselors. We were brought around to believe that her record could not be as strong in 3 years as it would be in 4. Her sports record, ECs, depth in foreign language, etc. would make her look less accomplished than if she took the extra year.</p>

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<p>It's been pretty steady for the last six years but it's gonna get worse in another four years.....</p>

<p>Some Stats:</p>

<p>Number of Babies Born Per YEar in USA</p>

<p>Sorted by % of Current total population</p>

<p>Pop Yr born % of Pop Age in 2005 </p>

<p>4,711,434 1960 1.67% 45
4,608,504 1961 1.64% 44
4,553,814 1962 1.62% 43
4,547,220 1958 1.62% 47
4,516,118 1965 1.61% 40
4,517,060 1963 1.61% 42
4,511,168 1964 1.60% 41
4,466,676 1959 1.59% 46
4,407,870 1957 1.57% 48
4,341,460 1955 1.54% 50
4,308,663 1956 1.53% 49 </p>

<p>4,267,320 1991 1.52% 14
4,274,056 1990 1.52% 15 </p>

<p>4,289,970 1970 1.52% 35
4,242,525 1971 1.51% 34 </p>

<p>4,179,230 1992 1.49% 13 </p>

<p>4,188,149 1966 1.49% 39 </p>

<p>4,127,855 1981 1.47% 24 </p>

<p>4,118,147 1993 1.46% 12
4,115,093 1989 1.46% 16
4,075,842 1988 1.45% 17 </p>

<p>4,087,563 1954 1.45% 51 </p>

<p>4,052,231 1986 1.44% 19
4,046,012 1983 1.44% 22
4,051,598 1982 1.44% 23
4,049,448 1980 1.44% 25
4,019,705 1994 1.43% 11
4,010,850 1987 1.43% 18
4,019,404 1985 1.43% 20 </p>

<p>4,011,575 1969 1.43% 36
4,026,573 1967 1.43% 38
4,019,692 1953 1.43% 52
3,984,812 1972 1.42% 33
3,994,121 1968 1.42% 37 </p>

<p>3,965,103 1995 1.41% 10
3,975,021 1984 1.41% 21
3,926,323 1996 1.40% 9 </p>

<p>3,885,145 1952 1.38% 53 </p>

<p>3,841,082 1979 1.37% 26 </p>

<p>3,820,582 1999 1.36% 6
3,832,799 1997 1.36% 8
3,805,648 2000 1.35% 5
3,790,446 1998 1.35% 7 </p>

<p>3,789,800 1973 1.35% 32 </p>

<p>3,808,515 1950 1.35% 55 </p>

<p>3,758,648 1978 1.34% 27 </p>

<p>3,758,544 1951 1.34% 54 </p>

<p>3,744,539 1975 1.33% 30 </p>

<p>3,707,436 1948 1.32% 57
3,673,582 1977 1.31% 28
3,641,241 1976 1.29% 29
3,619,660 1974 1.29% 31
3,616,997 1949 1.29% 56</p>

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<p>This report has a number of statistics relevant to the discussion
<a href="http://www.nacac.com/downloads/2004research_chapter1.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.nacac.com/downloads/2004research_chapter1.pdf&lt;/a>
See especially pp. 11-end
If you don't want to read it all, the conclusion is that the major change in the number of college students is due to the huge influx of women students. How soon we forget the 70's, when women pursuing college seriously were considered unfeminine!</p>