<p>mathmomvt – great minds think alike (and lesser ones, too, so no inferences can be drawn).</p>
<p>The number will be 0.5% of HS graduating seniors for that state. So they line kids up from highest to lowest score and see where the break is. You can see an individual high score will not affect this process. I don’t know whether they round up or down and how they decide. Anyone know this? It must be that most often the cut will fall in the middle of a batch of kids with a particular score. They have to take all of that score, or none.</p>
<p>If someone wants to assess chances, go back through CC’s old qualifying score threads and find the history of cut scores for your state. I checked for LA-</p>
<p>? Class of 2014(test 2012)
209 Class of 2013
209 2012
210 2011
207 2010
208 2009
206 2008
209 2007(Katrina a few weeks before test)
211 2006
209 2005
209 2004
208 2001
207 1999</p>
<p>It’s interesting to speculate on the effects of Katrina. I would have guessed class of 2007 scores would have dropped more than they did, but college board offered free tests to kids displaced by hurricane, which may have helped. The 3 years after that are unusually low.</p>
<p>Sometime in February the state summary reports for 2012 test will be available on college board site. You can try to compare to previous years’ results and see if scores seem generally lower or higher, but they are reported with data grouped in a way which is not transparent, so good luck.</p>
<p>My understanding is that they take the score that gives them “closest to” the target number. So if they were aiming for 100 semifinalists in a state and had 95 kids at or above 210 and then 50 kids at 209, they would make the cutoff 210 (even though that leaves them short a few). But if they had 58 kids at or above 210 and then 50 at 209 then the would make the cutoff 209 (even though that gives a few “too many” semifinalists). I don’t know this for a fact, that is just my interpretation of reading the description of the process, which alludes to this “closest to” factor. As far as I know, there isn’t a specific preference for always staying under the target number, or always getting at least the target number.</p>
<p>Um, Descartes puts the 206 in a different year than I thought, I wonder if my scores are all off by a year, don’t want to go back through and check, sorry. Anyway, LA scores are roughly like that</p>
<p>Keep in mind that it is NOT 1% of test takers in each state the become finalists. It is proportional based on the number of HS graduates in your state. </p>
<p>So, if your state accounts for 2% of the HS graduates in the nation, then 2% of the target 16K semifinalists, or approximately 320 semifinalists will be named in your state, and the cutoff will be selected to approximate that number as closely as possible. That may end up being the top 1% of test takers in the state, or it may end up being the top half of a percent, or the top 2 or 3%. </p>
<p>In states where the ACT is more common than the SAT, one might reasonably conclude that students would mainly take the PSAT if they were trying for NMSF, and thus the overall caliber of the test takers might be higher, and the total number of test takers smaller, so that the semifinalists end up being a higher percentage of the total test takers in such a state. </p>
<p>On the flip side, in a state that pays for every junior to write the PSAT, the total number of test takers will be especially high, so the cutoff will end up admitting less than 1% of the test takers in that state. </p>
<p>(This, if the guideline were just the top 1% of test takers in each state, states could artificially increase their number of finalists and lower their cutoff by making every junior take the test.)</p>
<p>226 in CA. What are my chances?</p>
<p>You should be quite safe with a 226 (in CA or anywhere)</p>
<p>
It is probably me that’s in error and not you, celeste. I did a quick look and found the 206 value among “2008 cutoffs”, which I took to mean cutoff scores released in 2008 and, consequently, added one for the graduation year. You appear to have been more meticulous than I so, short of re-tracing the research, I’d favor your data.</p>
<p>223 in MA? I mean, on the line but it’s never been higher, so please yes?</p>
<p>I think you should be safe, kitkat.</p>
<p>Newbie here (hi mathmomvt!). DS14 received his PSAT score yesterday…226 in Florida. Needless to say we’re very happy and relieved. A couple of his friends are right on the bubble though, in the 210/211 range. I took the opportunity yesterday also to explain the NMSF-to-NMF process to him. He’s already got the SAT score locked down and I’m sure his school will be supportive (they have 4-8 NMFs per year and plenty of commendeds as well). He’ll have to watch his GPA, though. No Cs or worse so far (touching wood) but plenty of Bs.</p>
<p>I am so disappointed. 215 in MA…</p>
<p>Any idea on 215 in Illinois ?</p>
<p>Hey, collegeluva101, that’s still an awesome score! I know it’s really hard to come on here and see everyone talking about their 230s and being disappointed, or on an SAT II forum and saying they’re going to retake a 740. Preposterous. Anyway, that’s still commended and maybe that other level (is there one between semis and commended?), and NM is just one academic opportunity.</p>
<p>I think a 215 in Illinois has a decent chance. Too close to recent cutoffs to bank on it, but definitely reason to be hopeful at least ;-)</p>
<p>226 in CA</p>
<p>I am a bit worried though, because last year (when the cutoff was 221), only two people from my school qualified.</p>
<p>On the other hand, this year, I already know four people who have scores higher than mine.</p>
<p>Should I be worried?</p>
<p>No, I don’t think you have anything to worry about eiffennej.</p>
<p>222 in CA here
Hoping the cutoff doesn’t decide to bump.</p>
<p>221 in MD. Looks to be on the bubble. Thoughts?</p>
<p>I think 221 in MD has a good chance. It is at the 2012 cutoff (highest in recent years) and 2 points above last year’s cutoff. Based on the preliminary percentile profiles, this year’s cutoffs should be closer to last year’s than 2012’s, though of course YMMV (your mileage may vary) in any particular state.</p>