@Phlipper oh wow, thank you for sharing! I searched your threads and read through your closed discussion on 2018 NMF/UCF and it was very inspiring! My DS21 and I have already reached out to Luke and he is planning on meeting us on the day we take our general group tour (non-NMF) on April 7, 2020. I don’t know how feasible it would be but if any current students - especially those from SoCal, like us (Orange County) - were available I would love to connect with you during our visit. DS21 and I would be interested to hear why you chose UCF over UCB and UCLA, or one of the top East Coast colleges, as I’m sure many of you received acceptances to many of these schools.
And another positive plug for Luke; he was on vacation when he responded to my email. I told him we just found out DS21’s NMSQT score last week so he’s not even a Semi-Finalist yet, but Luke still responded almost immediately to our outreach, and from his vacation no less! Talent, passion and competency at that level do matter and do influence my opinion so kudos to UCF for having such a great face of the program doing such great work.
@sherimba03 , Luke is amazing and went above and beyond for our former NMF. I believe a part of her will always regret not choosing UCF (but at the time she just couldn’t reconcile the distance). Good luck to all!
Luke is AMAZING ! I would say he was the best of any adviser we had contact with in my DDs college search. My daughter loves UCF, 2 days after she came home for break she was ready to go back. Can’t say enough good things about their program.
if I got a ssi of 223 (760rw 710m) and I live in tx do you think I’d qualify? I know Texas has been wavering around 221 but I don’t want to start college research assuming I’ll get it then have it taken away from me if the selection index goes up by a lot.
@aloedust there is no way the TX cut off would be 224. Even if it went up to 223 which which would be just crazy, you have no worries. When the time comes don’t forget to complete your eassy and application, send in your confirming score, don’t make any C’s and stay out of jail and you’ll be just fine.
@3scoutsmom Ok. Thank you! The only reason I was a bit worried was that Tx is kind of known for jumping 3 index points, but yeah 224 did seem like a huge jump.
Actually TX hadsn’t changed since 2017 and then only up by one point. Large states tend to more stable with their cut offs and changes the are usually due to changes in the tests that effect many states. At the very most TX might go up a point but if it changes at all I’d bet it would go down.
I wish I would have found this thread when I was waiting for my S#2 scores. From TX , tested on Oct 16 and he received a perfect score, SI 228. My S#1 was a NMF two years ago (SI 223) and is currently studying CS at Stanford - loves it. So we have been thru this before - every child is different though so I was THRILLED when he received his scores.
Hi all - I’m reviving this old thread to report that the guru has now spoken! Art Sawyer just posted his NMSF estimates for 2021 on his Compass Prep blog (search ‘Compass Prep 2021 National Merit Semifinalist’ to find the full report and state-by-state predictions).
Art expects SIs to drop in nearly every state, even in the really populous states like NY, CA, and TX. For most states he’s producing at 2-point drop.
It sounds like the College Board failed miserably at scaling the Oct. 16th test, which was taken by 85% of test takers nationwide. The number of test takers nationwide who scored above a 1400 dropped 30% from last year. Crazy. They really screwed up.
OTOH, this will be GREAT news for many kids and families who thought they weren’t going to make the cut this year!
I saw his post too and was pleasantly surprised to see his predicted cut offs declined by 1 or even 2 points. For CA, it’s predicted at 220 compared to 222 last year and it’ll be a great news for our son who has 221 SI if this prediction holds good ?
Thanks @UpNorth2019 for sharing. DS21’s school district required the kids to take the Saturday, Oct. 19th PSAT and he said it was extremely easy, and much easier than the practice tests. I’m curious if anyone will do an analysis to see if the scores on the 10/19 test were significantly higher than the other two sittings.
Well, now I’m worried they will decide to exclude his score because his school wouldn’t let him and his classmates take the test that apparently most other kids took. His top three preferred schools right now are UF, UCF, and ASU and it’s entirely because he’ll go for free (or very close to free, at ASU, especially if he gets stacked scholarships which he might well do) because we fully expect him to be an NMF based on his PSAT score. Okay, deep breaths, I really need to stop worrying about things I can’t control.
@sherimba03 : My new favorite guy Art talks about the Oct. 19th test in his detailed report. He says that the College Board was super-secretive about that test form, won’t release ANY data about it, even the scaling, and that students weren’t allowed to have their test booklets back, unlike for the other tests. (My D21 got her Oct. 16th booklet back last month).
The College Board’s lack of transparency about this year’s test is just terrible. It has made me even more cynical about them than I was before, which I didn’t think was possible. It makes me want to opt them out of testing completely, except that that would be cutting off my nose to spite my face since my kids both test really well…
@UpNorth2019 well that is really interesting! Thanks for pointing it out. I missed it on first read so I’ll have to take a closer look. Super suspicious, indeed. I wonder what the heck is up with the Oct. 19th test? Seriously, is my DS21’s NMF at risk here?
@sherimba03 Chill, girl! It’s a good sign that your son thought it was an easy test. Easier test = overall lower scores. That’s why the scores were all lower on the main test date. It was an easier test comparatively, so mistakes were weighted more, resulting in lower scores. They won’t exclude his score. Didn’t he get something crazy high, anyway? 226? Yeah, it’s all good. Don’t worry.
Went through all this with DS #1 last year and, like Groundhog Day, here I am for DS #2. While some people have celebrity crushes, hubby knows that my new crush is definitely Art Sawyer! Read his news about Index scores dropping across the board and that has given us reason to hope for a NMF scholarship for DS #2, as well!
April 11 Update: The Commended cutoff has fallen to from 212 for the class of 2020 to 209 for the class of 2021. This was the score that Compass had dubbed “most likely,” so it does not dramatically change state estimates. It does mean the highest and lowest values in our predicted ranges are a bit less likely, since we now know that the Commended level fell in the middle of the expected range. There will still be variation among states — we won’t see identical moves everywhere — and changes at the Commended level are not always replicated at the high end of the scale.
Does anyone know how volatile the cutoff SI for Alabama is? I’m 3 points above last year’s cutoff so I feel safe but I wanted to double-check.
Also, I know the turnaround from semifinalist to finalist is really large, so if I apply and “do everything right” (per se, I can elaborate), will I have a good opportunity to make finalist?
