As far as I’m aware, Yale has never published or released data regrading a deferred applicant’s chances, but Harvard has – and the data is not encouraging (see below). I must imagine Yale’s data is very similar. Therefore, as much as it might hurt, IMHO a deferred applicant should assume a deferral is a polite rejection and move on to other colleges on their list.
^While I agree that if you are deferred it is time for Plan B, I think the Harvard stat’s here are not as comparable given that Harvard defers around 75% of its EA applicants and Yale about 55%, so the Harvard deferred pool is likely less selective and at the very least more students are thrown back in the RD pool. Also Harvard admitted 964 EA this year, and if we use last year’s admitted students of 2,056 as a benchmark (although it may be lower this year bc of last year’s unexpectedly high yield), there are less than 1100 spots left. For Yale, using last year’s admitted student number of 2,272 and this year’s EA + Questbridge acceptances of 894, there are almost 1400 spots left for Yale. So I’d rather be deferred from Yale vs Harvard, at least this year.
I’m a realist so let me hit yall up with some facts real quick. 842/5733 applicants got into Yale Early Action which translates to just under 14.7%. THE Jeremiah Quinlan himself said they plan to take about 1550 students in the 2022 class, lets go ahead and round that up to 1600 to account for margin of error. That translates to 758 remaining spots in the 2022 class. Now if we all got deferred from an application pool of 5,733 our chances of getting in regular decision with a pool of around 26,000 is SLIM. I’m sorry to say this but for those of us who got deferred, start looking into other colleges, fall in love elsewhere, because Yale is most likely not gonna be the one.
^Your numbers of remaining spots are off. They are trying to fill a class of 1550 (class of 2021 had 1,579 students matriculating), but the total number of students to be admitted, if we use last year’s numbers of total admittances, will be about 2,272, that less 842(EA) and 52 (QB) leaves around 1400 spots. Still daunting numbers, but well over 600 more spots than you project.
^Your right, but I still think that for those of us deferred we will most likely end up in the wait list. Also can someone explain to me what they mean by they needed “more time” like was over a month not enough to read all the essays if they even read them? I heard that after you make it past the first round your application goes to a group of admissions officers sitting in a room, and the state representative tries to argue on your behalf, and then they vote. So where is the more time needed? For the representative to argue longer? I’m sure each state representative had enough time to thoroughly read the application and provide a detailed argument. All in all i feel like this whole deferred thing is complete bs, and in the future should just have accepted rejected so people can go focus on other colleges.
You are forgetting that a lot of the EA slots are taken - with athletes, Questbridge, and other “guaranteed” applicants. Deferred chances should be about the same as RD chances, which are not high. But basically the same.
I strongly believe that anyone who got deferred could have easily been accepted, its all random and luck based after you meet the grade and testing requirements.
@soccer92749
Generally when a selective school defers a candidate, they see something that they like in a candidate, but they want to evaluate the candidate in the context of the RD pool, not just the SCEA pool. Or they might want a bit more information on the candidate, in particular the full first semester of senior grades, before making a decision.
From Duke’s dean of undergraduate admission (old article, but still interesting -
https://thechoice.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/09/defer/)
Someone told us once (before the whole application process) that the deferred student is the schools way of saying that you are qualified to attend but that the early acceptance is for exceptional students and those that are qualified but not entirely exceptional would be all compared to all of the other students that all didn’t think they were exceptional enough to apply early or who applied somewhere else first. I am not saying that you are not an incredible candidate for pretty much any other school but that when compared to the rare few that were accepted early, you were just an average Yale capable student. Now in the RD round they will have a lot of applications and they will be matching different puzzle pieces to fit together to make a small class picture. Where you fit into that puzzle is what will be key.
When you look at all of the stats that they are posting in the decision thread, don’t look at all the things you had the same but all of the things you have in your corner that makes you different. Unlike most other schools, this is not an acceptance based on tests, scores and community service. Each one of you had that. Its based on something unique.
Also don’t look at the list of things and say to yourself that you did so much more, how did this person get in. One trait that most of my daughter’s Yale friends have is being humble. Many of them were accepted for things they didn’t even realize made them special and unique. It was just who they were, how they lived their HS years and what they accomplished outside of the classroom.
I know that this may sound a little harsh but the truth is that you may already be feeling this. Yale is a very difficult school. The hardest thing my daughter has had to deal with is the reality that she went from being exceptional in HS to being just average at Yale. She was accepted during the RD round. As you are all waiting to hear the end result in March, think long and hard about how you really feel your chances are. It will help you move on and apply to other places where you might still be considered exceptional.
@soccer92749, I can sympathize with the frustration, but the Duke piece that @Faulkner1897 linked above is pretty much the way I understand how EA works for Yale based on conversations with senior AO’s. Remember 29% of SCEA applicants were in fact rejected. The SCEA pool has always been stronger than the RD pool as a whole, so to have made that cut tells you that you have a strong application. Ultimately, it probably won’t be Yale just based on the numbers (the odds were always stacked against even the strongest candidates), but as long as you have a good list of reach and match schools, you’ll probably find a good home there. If Yale were more like Stanford, getting a rare deferral would mean you have a super strong application, but if you were rejected, there is less feedback to work with. If Yale were more like Harvard which only rejects about 12% of EA, getting deferred tells you almost nothing. On the other hand to get rejected EA by Harvard probably means you were either shooting too high or if your test scores and HS record were within the range (especially if you were at or above the historical medians), then something was off in your essays, LoR’s and/or EC’s.
@Memmsmom Your completely right and that’s the harsh truth of reality. If I got deferred from literally any other college in this world I wouldn’t even blink, but in Yale’s case I’ve already made so many friends and even have a brother over there, so I’ve worked really hard to try to be able to go and join them. It’s just hard to come to terms that I will most likely be attending a college that I truly love, but the chance of it being Yale is close to zero.
My AP Lit teacher was assuring me that a deferral is not a bad thing, especially from a school like Yale. I’m already happy enough that I’m even being considered by such an amazing school, but I also understand that the chances are slim. Work is going into the letter of update, but a lot of work is going into all of my other applications as well.
What other schools are you guys applying to?
How are you going to send the letter?
Is anybody trying to submit a research supplement? I missed the deadline for early action and I can’t find the form on my portal. Should I just send in my paper (will be published in Nature Chemistry this coming year), along with my research mentor rec letter and letter of updates, by mail?
@WinnerWannabe they should send you an email with the link.
How are people sending the letter of update? There is a place to update your application in the application portal, are people doing it there? Thanks!
@cardust I’m updating through the portal
Do letters of update actually help or is it a nuisance?
@lesjubilants I would say only send a letter of update if you have a significant development in your education. Think about whether or not you would have put it in your original application; if not, no point in bothering the admissions committee with yet another update. Personally, I’ve received a few awards since I was deferred, so I am planning to update them on those. But again, if you don’t have anything super important, do not feel like you HAVE to submit an update.
After his deferral my son was advised to send a letter. He had a few actual “updates” but it was mostly just another opportunity to show sincere interest and let them know it remained his first choice. I suppose if you really have nothing to say, then skip it, but why not take the opportunity? Admissions will be reviewing your file again in the regular round so put your best foot forward.