Class of 2022 National Merit Discussion - Scores Release

You can use any SAT or ACT score from the fall of your sophomore year to December of your senior year

(For those who always pedantically ask, yes, I believe August (SAT) and early September (ACT) of Sophomore year are included. Not June or July between Fr/Soph.)

Those who qualify via an SAT score through Alternate Entry do not require an additional confirming score.

Fwiw, Art at CP, probably the most knowledgeable on the topics, said

We expect the confirming score requirement to return for the class of 2022 unless significant cancelations occur into the summer.

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Thanks for you valuable information @RichInPitt. We were unaware that those who qualify via a SAT score (alternate entry) do not require an additional confirming score. If this is true for 2022, my DD can stop worrying about taking an ACT test now. She has an alternate entry selection index score of 226.

I just called National Merit Corp and asked that question. They said the confirming score must come from a test that is within one year prior to the PSAT or up to December of the senior year. So they must have the score on file by December of the senior year.)

My son got a very good ACT score the summer after his freshman year, but that won’t count as a confirming score since it was before October of his sophomore year. He took the PSAT October of his junior year (last October).

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I wonder if you could ask them to consider making an exception during, you know, a pandemic! Seems like a waste to sit for another test just for a confirming score when he was already scoring at that level as a freshman?

They waived the confirming test requirement last year. It’s in the requirements of the student handbook this year, but it was last year also, so TBD.

I doubt they’ll start doing case-by-case evaluations.

Has anyone heard what the Semifinalist cutoff will be in PA? The range that I have seen is pretty broad, and I was wondering if any data has been released that might help determine where in that range (215-221) the cutoff will ultimately fall.

NY cutoff predictions anyone? Have a 221 which is around the cusp according to historical data.

The cutoffs won’t be known till early September. All there is right now are estimates.

221 in NY makes NMSF extremely likely

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Compass Prep posted their “official cutoffs” August 23 last year. I suspect it took a day or two to collect/confirm after the letters arrived at schools.

So less than two weeks.

Based on the Commended cutoff, my best estimate would be about 1/3 up from the low end of the CompassPrep range.

So 217-218 in PA, 218 in NY. NY may even slip a bit as Stuyvestant didn’t administer the PSAT and they usually account for ~100 of the ~1000 SFs in NY.

It looks like waiving the confirming score for SFs was announced at the same time as the official SF list last year - early Sept.

Aug 23 is shockingly early. It was an early Sept in 2019.

Last year, the cutoff list was posted on the National Merit site for a day or so. It was removed, but it proved to be the correct information.

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Oh yeah, I remember that! It was this random little gift in the middle of the pandemic. I don’t think we will get that gift again. :joy:

I wish we would!

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This whole college process feels like we are always waiting for something! Patience is not my strong suit.

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If your guesstimate is correct, then it would appear scores would either remain static or drop a point across the board.

Yes, Art Sawyer explains this in his posts. National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2024

There are a fixed number of slots for each state, not a percentage. They are filled from high to lower scores for each state. With fewer students able to take the test, it requires going down to a lower score to fill the bucket.

If it hadn’t been for the low score outlier of last year, the drop would even be greater. I think the drop in the Commended cutoff confirms this projection (I think his estimate had been something like 206-210, actual is 207).

2 points up in the 6 point range CP lists would result in 2 states going up, 35 unchanged, and 14 going down (mostly high cutoff states) from last year. I’d say this is a pretty good estimate.

The higher number of alternate Entry students, and the lower cutoff for them to qualify (their scores don’t factor into the cutoff), means there will likely be a much larger number of Semi-finalists this year. It will be interesting to see if they reduce the number of Finalists, or just award scholarships to a smaller percentage of Finalists (my guess)

I’m pretty sure scores have leaked in late August for many years. Schools receive advance notice of cutoff and students that qualify, so administrators can confirm the data. These get out and are posted. I would expect official announcement/notification will still be one to two weeks into September, as always.

That makes me feel a little better. We are in Tennessee. S22 scored a SI of 215, which would have been fine for Class of '21. My internal bet was that the cutoff for Tennessee for '22 would be 214-216. Obviously, I don’t like one of those numbers very much. But, if I accept your logic, then we are one of the 35 states that stays the same. My son would be very happy with that (assuming there are no drastic changes to university NMF scholarships).

In 2019, schools too received advance notice only in Sept. We homeschool, and I receive all the information ahead of time as a “school principal”. Homeschool parents are actually one of the main sources of Art’s unofficial data in early September.

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So much waiting, especially for this!

Our school doesn’t regularly offer the PSAT to everyone. You have to pay and it’s a Saturday. Last year, Michigan made it the make-up test from the missed spring 2020 tests and so it was a required test day. Every Junior took it in our school. I imagine a lot more kids in Michigan took it last year than in other years. I’m hoping that this doesn’t change predictions too much.