Class of 2025 National Merit Discussion

NM Commended Students are done at a national level, so that might be what the 50,000 refers to. NM semifinalists are only about 16,000- distributed proportionally to their state.

Yes. The national 50000 (about) sets the Commented Cutoff - this usually becomes public sometime around April (officially not until September.

Of those, 16000 or so get proportionately allocated to states (for example 2000+ to CA, 500 to NJ, 25 to some of the less populated states) and the NM cut off is set up at the state level to match those numbers. NM cutoff must not be lower than the Commended number.

There is a strong correlation between the two numbers, however this is a new test and no one knows exactly what will happen. States with lower numbers tend to see bigger swings. I think the overall expectation is that the commended cutoff will increase a bit. College Board claims scores are equivalent, but overall students are reporting finding the test easier and higher scores. Compass Prep does a deep dive on all this in their blog. They are pretty accurate with predictions but admit that this is new territory.

We are looking at an outstanding SI, but I am worried it may not be enough this time. My hope is that the gains are coming mostly from previously good but not excellent scores, that top scorers would have scored high either way and therefore high SI states won’t see as big a swing (I can hope right?)

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My Ds score is above the cutoff for the last four years by a few points, but just below the cutoff from the highest scores from 2015-2020 time frame. Fingers crossed it ends up being enough!!

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Curious if your son’s PSAT/NMSQT score matched the practice test on BlueBlook?

My daughter also had a 1520 on the one practice test offered from College Board on BlueBook, but alas her actual score was not 1520 so now we have to wait until fall when cut-offs are finalized. Praying a 224 holds in a state currently projected to be 219-222. We’ve never had a cut-off higher than 224 before but so many unknown variables this time around, especially with possible alternate entries due to technical difficulties.

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DS scored a 1520. He came home and asked me to explain National Merit. We’re in Texas, and he’ll be a CS major so UTD is looking good though I’m intrigued by Tulsa assuming they offer the same scholarship next year. He’s not as interested in UCF but we’ll see if he wants to take a look next fall. His sister is a senior there now. We’ll probably do the UTD open house in March otherwise I guess we wait.

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Mine wont get his score until the 16th.

My D25 was above the cutoff IL has had for the last several years. We’ll see what happens this year. I do have to say I am a bit annoyed that even though she has a higher overall score than a lot of people, that because her English is lower than her Math her SI is lower by a few points than those whose overall score is lower than hers. I know that’s how the test works but it’s still super annoying to me!

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Parent of an intensely humanities-focused kid here, just noting quietly that with all the intensity about STEM initiatives and such, it’s kind of refreshing to have just one high-stakes opportunity where the thumb is on the other side of the scale.

(Of course, even with a 760RW it still requires a decently high math score to hit NMSF status no matter the state, so it’s not like it takes slackers on that side, either.)

His score just came in. His practice 1520 translates to a 1480 this time.

Although if you look at it as 3 scores, Reading/English and Math then it makes more sense. (3 equal scores) Mine aced the math again with a 760 but 720ed Reading and English. ( which he aced last time) That resulted in a lower SSI. 720 720 760

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Thanks for the follow-up! So my kid wasn’t the only one bamboozled by the practice test;). Our 1520 practice turned into 1490 on the actual PSAT.

Strangely, my kid’s math PSAT was a 740 (English 750, so a selection index of 224.). Meanwhile already has 800 math on the SAT and 36 math on the ACT.

I wouldn’t call that bamboozled. 1490/1520 is the same range. It’s a matter of “mayne” a couple of wrong answers.

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One question, if a student gets into semifinalist, what is the odd to get the final National Merit?

According to NMSC, approximately 95% of semifinalists become finalists.

Finalist to Scholar is a little more difficult. To become a Scholar, one is either selected for a NMSC $2500 scholarship, a corporate scholarship or attends a college that awards them a NMS scholarship. Many students don’t receive the NMSC scholarship or a corporate scholarship. If they choose to attend a college that doesn’t participate in the NMSC program, they remain Finalists.

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Thanks! How to get a corporate scholarship? Does the student need to apply to specific corp?

Those appear to be mostly bookmarked for children of employees. I am not sure how it works exactly but you can look at the NMSC site for a list of sponsors. Also these scholarships are only in the ~$2000 range. The real prize is in attending one of the universities that offer full rides to finalists.

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Not strange at all, really—the subscore max on the PSAT is 760, so that’s probably just one question wrong on the math section, which can happen to anybody anytime from a sign error or something else tiny that slips past. So that 740 isn’t really meaningfully different from the 36 or the 800.

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From College Board account, it shows the percent

                      Math                 > 99th Percentile
                      Reading and Writing  > 98th Percentile
                      Overall              > 99th Percentile

Can this percentile score guarantee to make into National Merit Semifinalist?

No, national merit is not based on percentiles. It is based on the student’s “selection index.”

What is your student’s selection index and what state do you live in? The selection index is listed right on the score report.

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This might help.

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