As mentioned above, and due to my own experience in public education, I know that certain factors are more of an indicator of the financial background of students and not so much what we think/hope it might be measuring. For instance, most analyses show that there is a very direct correlation between standardized test scores and family incomes. However, when looking at students’ growth on standardized tests (at least our state standardized tests), there is no correlation with family income. So a student can grow a lot or regress a lot, and there is no correlation to their income. Basically, it’s a way to assess the effectiveness of the instruction without the very real impact of family income coming into play.
As it appears that family income is likely a very big factor in the default rates (particularly since the default rates are not restricted to those who received their degree), I’ve been thinking about other possible ways to measure an institution’s effectiveness that (hopefully) is not as closely linked to income. The Wall Street Journal released its college rankings recently and one of the factors it included related to expected graduation rates (see thread). Although I am unable to read the WSJ’s details (not a subscriber), the Washington Monthly also produces college rankings AND it allows the data to be downloaded. Its 2023 guide & rankings are out, and the methodology section explains the graduation performance rank, which I partially use below.
Half of that score was determined by the reported graduation rate and the other half came from comparing the reported graduation rate to a predicted graduation rate based on the percentage of Pell recipients, the percentage of students receiving student loans, the admit rate, the racial/ethnic and gender makeup of the student body, the number of students (overall and full-time), and whether a college is primarily residential. We estimated this predicted graduation rate measure in a regression model separately for each classification using average data from the last three years, imputing for missing data when necessary. Colleges with graduation rates that are higher than the “average” college with similar stats score better than colleges that match or, worse, undershoot the mark.
Washington Monthly divided its lists by the categories National, Liberal Arts, Bachelor’s, and Master’s, so the rankings don’t necessarily correspond well to one another within a state when the school is in a different category. Thus, for the state comparisons, I’ve calculated the difference between the actual graduation rate and the predicted graduation rate and sorted them from biggest (positive) difference to lowest. The rank data for the category is still included.
As you look through the data (or look at the general data on WM’s website, or your state’s data), I’d love for people to think about the same questions as before, but substituting the the graduation rate performance gap metric for the default rate:
- Do you see a relationship between the school’s graduation rate performance gap and the school’s reputation for quality in the state?
- In your experiences of dealing with the alumni from the various universities, do you see a relationship between how well you thought of them (work/thought quality) as compared to the graduation rate performance gaps?
- Basically, do the graduation rate performance gaps surprise you? Confirm what you’ve seen in real life? Or do you think the graduation rate performance gaps have no correlation to the quality of education received?
- If you were to use a graduation rate performance gap as a filter on schools, where would you draw the line when considering schools for anyone you’d give guidance to…-2% -5%? -10%? -15%? Doesn’t matter?
- NEW: When looking at graduation rate performance gaps, is there a percentage where you would say, “Wow, I really need to look into that school,” that you wouldn’t have considered before? (+5%, +10%, +15%, doesn’t matter)
Without further ado, here are the state-by-state tables for Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Washington. The tables don’t align perfectly with the ones from #1 as some schools (probably the community colleges in WA were excluded by WM).
LOUISIANA
| Graduation Rate Performance Rank | School | State | 8-year graduation rate | Predicted Graduation Rate | Category | Difference Between Actual & Expected Graduation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | Grambling State | LA | 41% | 34% | Master’s | 7% |
| 155 | Southern A&M | LA | 39% | 37% | National | 2% |
| 216 | LSU-Baton Rouge | LA | 68% | 68% | National | 0% |
| 338 | Southern U.-New Orleans | LA | 34% | 35% | Master’s | -1% |
| 368 | Northwestern State U. of LA | LA | 41% | 43% | Master’s | -2% |
| 322 | U. of Louisiana-Monroe | LA | 48% | 51% | National | -3% |
| 168 | LSU-Alexandria | LA | 31% | 36% | Bachelor’s | -5% |
| 371 | U. of Louisiana-Lafayette | LA | 52% | 58% | National | -6% |
| 472 | Nicholls State | LA | 47% | 53% | Master’s | -6% |
| 466 | McNeese State | LA | 47% | 53% | Master’s | -6% |
| 485 | Southeastern Louisiana U. | LA | 42% | 49% | Master’s | -7% |
| 423 | Louisiana Tech | LA | 52% | 63% | National | -11% |
| 420 | U. of New Orleans | LA | 43% | 54% | National | -11% |
| 571 | LSU-Shreveport | LA | 35% | 48% | Master’s | -13% |
MASSACHUSETTS
| Graduation Rate Performance Rank | School | State | 8-year graduation rate | Predicted Graduation Rate | Category | Difference Between Actual & Expected Graduation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | MA Maritime Academy | MA | 79% | 62% | Master’s | 17% |
| 95 | Westfield State | MA | 65% | 57% | Master’s | 8% |
| 111 | Bridgewater State | MA | 62% | 55% | Master’s | 7% |
| 26 | Mass. College of Liberal Arts | MA | 60% | 54% | Liberal Arts | 6% |
| 154 | Salem State | MA | 62% | 57% | Master’s | 5% |
| 181 | Fitchburg State | MA | 59% | 55% | Master’s | 4% |
| 151 | U. Mass-Amherst | MA | 79% | 76% | National | 3% |
| 240 | Framingham State | MA | 60% | 58% | Master’s | 2% |
| 314 | Worcester State | MA | 60% | 61% | Master’s | -1% |
| 270 | U. Mass-Dartmouth | MA | 55% | 57% | National | -2% |
| 328 | U. Mass-Boston | MA | 57% | 61% | National | -4% |
| 357 | U. Mass-Lowell | MA | 61% | 66% | National | -5% |
MISSOURI
| Graduation Rate Performance Rank | School | State | 8-year graduation rate | Predicted Graduation Rate | Category | Difference Between Actual & Expected Graduation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | U. of Missouri-St. Louis | MO | 58% | 51% | National | 7% |
| 187 | Truman State | MO | 72% | 68% | Master’s | 4% |
| 199 | MO Univ. of Science & Tech. | MO | 70% | 69% | National | 1% |
| 180 | Missouri State-Springfield | MO | 57% | 56% | National | 1% |
| 329 | U. of Central Missouri | MO | 54% | 54% | Master’s | 0% |
| 257 | U. of Missouri-Columbia | MO | 69% | 71% | National | -2% |
| 354 | U. of Missouri-Kansas City | MO | 53% | 57% | National | -4% |
| 458 | Missouri Southern State | MO | 40% | 45% | Master’s | -5% |
| 440 | Southeast Missouri State | MO | 49% | 54% | Master’s | -5% |
| 471 | Northwest Missouri State | MO | 52% | 58% | Master’s | -6% |
| 195 | Lincoln | MO | 27% | 35% | Bachelor’s | -8% |
| 212 | Harris-Stowe | MO | 18% | 28% | Bachelor’s | -10% |
| 577 | Missouri Western State | MO | 34% | 48% | Master’s | -14% |
NEW MEXICO
| Graduation Rate Performance Rank | School | State | 8-year graduation rate | Predicted Graduation Rate | Category | Difference Between Actual & Expected Graduation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 284 | New Mexico Highlands | NM | 41% | 40% | Master’s | 1% |
| 198 | U. of New Mexico | NM | 52% | 52% | National | 0% |
| 450 | Eastern New Mexico | NM | 45% | 50% | Master’s | -5% |
| 408 | New Mexico State | NM | 53% | 61% | National | -8% |
| 529 | Western New Mexico | NM | 34% | 43% | Master’s | -9% |
| 558 | New Mexico Inst. of Mining & Tech | NM | 55% | 66% | Master’s | -11% |
NORTH CAROLINA
| Graduation Rate Performance Rank | School | State | 8-year graduation rate | Predicted Graduation Rate | Category | Difference Between Actual & Expected Graduation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winston-Salem State | NC | 63% | 39% | National | 24% |
| 17 | East Carolina | NC | 67% | 56% | National | 11% |
| 56 | UNC-Pembroke | NC | 46% | 36% | Master’s | 10% |
| 35 | Elizabeth City State | NC | 44% | 35% | Bachelor’s | 9% |
| 73 | Appalachian State | NC | 74% | 65% | Master’s | 9% |
| 87 | North Carolina Central | NC | 49% | 41% | Master’s | 8% |
| 74 | UNC-Chapel Hill | NC | 90% | 84% | National | 6% |
| 127 | Fayetteville State | NC | 44% | 38% | Master’s | 6% |
| 111 | Western Carolina | NC | 65% | 60% | National | 5% |
| 86 | North Carolina A&T | NC | 51% | 46% | National | 5% |
| 102 | UNC-Wilmington | NC | 72% | 67% | National | 5% |
| 122 | UNC-Greensboro | NC | 58% | 54% | National | 4% |
| 146 | North Carolina State | NC | 81% | 78% | National | 3% |
| 308 | UNC-Charlotte | NC | 61% | 63% | National | -2% |
| 158 | UNC-Asheville | NC | 63% | 67% | Liberal Arts | -4% |
WASHINGTON
| Graduation Rate Performance Rank | School | State | 8-year graduation rate | Predicted Graduation Rate | Category | Difference Between Actual & Expected Graduation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | U. of Washington-Tacoma | WA | 75% | 60% | Master’s | 15% |
| 28 | Evergreen State | WA | 66% | 52% | Master’s | 14% |
| 96 | Western Washington | WA | 73% | 66% | Master’s | 7% |
| 99 | Central Washington | WA | 63% | 56% | Master’s | 7% |
| 148 | U. of Washington-Bothell | WA | 78% | 73% | Master’s | 5% |
| 121 | U. of Washington-Seattle | WA | 84% | 80% | National | 4% |
| 175 | Eastern Washington | WA | 58% | 54% | Master’s | 4% |
| 177 | Washington State | WA | 65% | 63% | National | 2% |