Actually, GoBears2023’s outcome serves as a perfect example of predictability. Cornell ED acceptance would have required Cornell to offer him a full ride. He had a hook—being Tahitian, who can be counted as native/indigenous american—but Cornell wasn’t in a position to be as financially generous as HYPS (MIT is also not as rich as HYPS).
On this board, for whatever reason, people tend to downplay the significance of hooks by advising applicants to choose much less selective schools than they actually deserve.
In GoBears case, if he was full pay, given his super strong resume, he could have gotten in every school he applied to.