College admission unpredictable

[1NJParent]

@Data10

If the decisions were really random and unpredictable, […]

Unpredictability doesn’t imply randomness. Admissions could be methodical but still unpredictable.

@Data10

[…]one important factor is that Cornell has widely varying degrees of selectivity among different schools, and likely to a lesser extent majors; while most of HYPSM… do not.

The most selective Cornell school (CoE) is still less selective than HYPSM.

@Data10

Another possible factor is the interview. He says that his first “real interview” was with Brown, and the Cornell one was just for info.

Cornell interview isn’t “evaluative”, according to its CDS. It’s only for information purpose.

@jzducol

Actually, GoBears2023’s outcome serves as a perfect example of predictability. Cornell ED acceptance would have required Cornell to offer him a full ride. He had a hook—being Tahitian, who can be counted as native/indigenous american—but Cornell wasn’t in a position to be as financially generous as HYPS (MIT is also not as rich as HYPS).
[…]
In GoBears case, if he was full pay, given his super strong resume, he could have gotten in every school he applied to.

Cornell, MIT or CMU SCS are all need-blind. FA isn’t a factor in admissions.