The problem is we tend to look at the outliers as the experience of the majority. Yes. A Tahitian superstar with unrivaled excellence will have a more predictable path. An athletic recruit with outstanding credentials as well. Also for an Obama Hogg or Bezos or acclaimed teenage actor sure.
The academically unqualified and no preference student is also fairly predictable.
Once we eliminate that statistically small cohort, you’re left with a large swath of academic and ec excellent group. Even more accomplished than what we would call the average excellent. There are thousands of these students and very limited space.
The confusion and feeling of randomness occurs within this group.
Multiply this by the variables of many different schools and combinations of results.
Multiply it over several years of admissions cycles and there are many who can come to CC feeling this way.
Why x seemingly similar to y gets into A. But y gets into b and Y doesn’t.
Multiply this by how one views A vs B in terms of selectivity and attractiveness. Personally.
There are so many variables it’s impossible to quantify at an individual student level.
Especially if y has a slight edge in knowable facts, like gpa and board scores. It feels like a crap shoot to many because they can’t explain it.
Also people love their candidate and it gets personal.