To calculate the probability of acceptance at a specific college, one needs to know the following, even assuming s/he has seen the application package in its entirety:
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How the college quantify, if it does, each element of the application. Only some, certainly not all colleges, quantify every element of an application. If the college doesn’t, the exercise to predict is already moot. If it does, how precise and consistent its method is is also highly uncertain in most cases. After all, quite a few elements in an application are subjective and don’t lend themselves to formulaic quantification.
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How the college weighs each element of an application, even after each has been scored. We only have some information, only from statistical studies, on what Harvard may have done because of the lawsuit. We don’t know anything about the other schools. Even for Harvard, statistics are limited in scope (time, sample size, etc.) and are no substitute for actual practice used by Harvard.
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How individual AO strictly follow the college guidelines and to what degree s/he is affected by emotions, personal biases, etc. AOs are humans after all.
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How the dean/director of admissions exercise his/her power to override decisions on admissions at each college.
Can we quantify all these elements, beyond some guesstimate of saying an applicant has “low”, “medium” or “high” probability of admission? I doubt it.