<p>Chancing people is a fine art.</p>
<p>Essentially any school with 10% or less admit rate is not something anyone can predict without a genuine hook. So someone who predicts anything lower than a reach has no idea what they are talking about. The chance remains the same as percentage of admit rate (actually it is lower for general pool since there are a large number of seats eliminated from general public - athletes, legacy). </p>
<p>It is also important to ask people what their financial and admission safety school is. If someone does list all the schools they are applying to and only want to discuss HYPS - they should never be chanced in my opinion since they are not here to discuss but be offended.</p>